Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$331.25
-$28.66
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $220.19 | $203.18 | -$17.01 | 51% 7374-6993 (14367) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.6¢ | $151.49 | $203.18 | +$51.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.6¢ | $68.7 | — | -$68.7 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $34.81 | — | -$34.81 | 64% 22780-12562 (35342) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $33.66 | $34 | +$0.34 | 93% 23201-1758 (24959) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $54.21 | $62.62 | +$8.41 | 64% 39977-22851 (62828) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $27.57 | $26.37 | -$1.2 | 63% 51732-30464 (82196) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 61% 94646-59611 (154257) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $4.2 | — | +$2.8 | 51% 19993-19160 (39153) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $2.08 | $5.08 | +$3 | 64% 58160-32830 (90990) |
Invested
$220.19
Value
$203.18
PnL
-$17.01
Record
51%
7374-6993 (14367)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.81
Value
—
PnL
-$34.81
Record
64%
22780-12562 (35342)
Invested
$33.66
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.34
Record
93%
23201-1758 (24959)
ohioism<$100Invested
$54.21
Value
$62.62
PnL
+$8.41
Record
64%
39977-22851 (62828)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$27.57
Value
$26.37
PnL
-$1.2
Record
63%
51732-30464 (82196)
Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
61%
94646-59611 (154257)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
+$2.8
Record
51%
19993-19160 (39153)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$3
Record
64%
58160-32830 (90990)
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