Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$139.79
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $386.21 | $431.89 | +$45.69 | 51% 7374-6993 (14367) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $229.87 | — | -$229.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.2¢ | $156.34 | $431.89 | +$275.56 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $384.31 | $388.19 | +$3.88 | 93% 23201-1758 (24959) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $87.92 | — | -$87.92 | 48% 23233-25499 (48732) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $88.1 | $87.63 | -$0.47 | 64% 58160-32830 (90990) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.1¢ | $49.9 | — | -$49.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.6¢ | $38.21 | $87.63 | +$49.43 | |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $49.63 | — | -$49.63 | 58% 12586-9256 (21842) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 82.8¢ | $65.76 | $66.52 | +$0.76 | 63% 51732-30464 (82196) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $38.69 | — | -$38.69 | 64% 22780-12562 (35342) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 48.7¢ | $19.55 | $20.09 | +$0.54 | 64% 39977-22851 (62828) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $22.11 | $45.65 | +$23.54 | 55% 44709-37178 (81887) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $10.01 | — | -$10.01 | 58% 60418-44109 (104527) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $11.2 | — | -$11.2 | 34% 18719-35716 (54435) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $14.45 | $20 | +$5.55 | 58% 37751-26971 (64722) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $11.74 | $23.53 | +$11.79 | 61% 94646-59611 (154257) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 41.6¢ | $18.83 | $26.44 | +$7.61 | 52% 90065-84555 (174620) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $3.26 | $6.06 | +$2.8 | 66% 112022-58386 (170408) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $10.8 | $12 | +$1.2 | 74% 102400-36373 (138773) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19993-19160 (39153) |
Invested
$386.21
Value
$431.89
PnL
+$45.69
Record
51%
7374-6993 (14367)
Both legs:
Invested
$384.31
Value
$388.19
PnL
+$3.88
Record
93%
23201-1758 (24959)
Invested
$87.92
Value
—
PnL
-$87.92
Record
48%
23233-25499 (48732)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$88.1
Value
$87.63
PnL
-$0.47
Record
64%
58160-32830 (90990)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$49.63
Value
—
PnL
-$49.63
Record
58%
12586-9256 (21842)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$65.76
Value
$66.52
PnL
+$0.76
Record
63%
51732-30464 (82196)
Invested
$38.69
Value
—
PnL
-$38.69
Record
64%
22780-12562 (35342)
ohioism<$100Invested
$19.55
Value
$20.09
PnL
+$0.54
Record
64%
39977-22851 (62828)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$22.11
Value
$45.65
PnL
+$23.54
Record
55%
44709-37178 (81887)
Invested
$10.01
Value
—
PnL
-$10.01
Record
58%
60418-44109 (104527)
Invested
$11.2
Value
—
PnL
-$11.2
Record
34%
18719-35716 (54435)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$20
PnL
+$5.55
Record
58%
37751-26971 (64722)
Invested
$11.74
Value
$23.53
PnL
+$11.79
Record
61%
94646-59611 (154257)
Invested
$18.83
Value
$26.44
PnL
+$7.61
Record
52%
90065-84555 (174620)
Invested
$3.26
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$2.8
Record
66%
112022-58386 (170408)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$12
PnL
+$1.2
Record
74%
102400-36373 (138773)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19993-19160 (39153)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $388.19
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wowitsamazing
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $66.52
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $20.09
MayorMamdani
Down — $45.65
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0