Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 62%
1 arb excluded
$486.3
$44.88
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $141.88 | $128.2 | -$13.69 | 51% 7342-6974 (14316) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.5¢ | $59.21 | — | -$59.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.5¢ | $82.67 | $128.2 | +$45.53 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.91 | — | -$1.91 | 62% 43728-26734 (70462) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.1¢ | $109.71 | $113 | +$3.29 | 93% 23157-1756 (24913) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $71.89 | $89.66 | +$17.77 | 56% 57878-44713 (102591) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $42.79 | $48.34 | +$5.55 | 58% 60398-44091 (104489) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85.6¢ | $25.68 | $30 | +$4.32 | 55% 44682-37145 (81827) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $45.37 | $26.67 | -$0.88 | 64% 22724-12523 (35247) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $21.81 | $25.27 | +$3.46 | 61% 94613-59581 (154194) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $5.04 | $14 | +$8.96 | 66% 99072-51320 (150392) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $9.77 | $11.17 | +$1.4 | 52% 90032-84524 (174556) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $8.86 | — | +$1.04 | 64% 58129-32808 (90937) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $1.2 | — | +$3.88 | 51% 19978-19143 (39121) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 48% 23230-25485 (48715) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 58% 37728-26945 (64673) |
Invested
$141.88
Value
$128.2
PnL
-$13.69
Record
51%
7342-6974 (14316)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.91
Value
—
PnL
-$1.91
Record
62%
43728-26734 (70462)
Invested
$109.71
Value
$113
PnL
+$3.29
Record
93%
23157-1756 (24913)
Invested
$71.89
Value
$89.66
PnL
+$17.77
Record
56%
57878-44713 (102591)
Invested
$42.79
Value
$48.34
PnL
+$5.55
Record
58%
60398-44091 (104489)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$25.68
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.32
Record
55%
44682-37145 (81827)
Invested
$45.37
Value
$26.67
PnL
-$0.88
Record
64%
22724-12523 (35247)
Invested
$21.81
Value
$25.27
PnL
+$3.46
Record
61%
94613-59581 (154194)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$14
PnL
+$8.96
Record
66%
99072-51320 (150392)
Invested
$9.77
Value
$11.17
PnL
+$1.4
Record
52%
90032-84524 (174556)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$8.86
Value
—
PnL
+$1.04
Record
64%
58129-32808 (90937)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
+$3.88
Record
51%
19978-19143 (39121)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
23230-25485 (48715)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
37728-26945 (64673)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $113
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $89.66
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $48.34
MayorMamdani
Down — $30
aaa221
Down — $26.67
asidjasiodja
Down — $25.27
Bonereaper
Down — $14
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11.17