Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Up 73%
3 arb excluded
$570.09
$56.1
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $263.29 | $229.9 | -$33.39 | 51% 7317-6947 (14264) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75¢ | $172.43 | $229.9 | +$57.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.4¢ | $90.86 | — | -$90.86 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $2.01 | — | -$2.01 | 62% 43714-26712 (70426) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $1.78 | — | -$1.78 | 58% 60375-44067 (104442) |
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $47.82 | $43.47 | -$4.35 | 61% 94573-59553 (154126) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.4¢ | $22.19 | — | -$22.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59¢ | $25.63 | $43.47 | +$17.84 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $52.96 | $44.49 | -$8.47 | 63% 51691-30414 (82105) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.7¢ | $32.81 | $44.49 | +$11.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.6¢ | $20.15 | — | -$20.15 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 63.1¢ | $34.26 | $54.33 | +$20.07 | 64% 22669-12483 (35152) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $19.2 | $18 | -$1.2 | 55% 44647-37116 (81763) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $27.06 | $26.09 | +$3.63 | 64% 58097-32792 (90889) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $19.43 | $35.08 | +$15.65 | 64% 39932-22817 (62749) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $36.63 | $37 | +$0.37 | 93% 23128-1756 (24884) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $18.61 | $38.37 | +$19.76 | 56% 57846-44687 (102533) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $16.66 | $34 | +$17.34 | 34% 18702-35698 (54400) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $17.34 | — | -$17.34 | 66% 99051-51306 (150357) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $7.75 | $9.35 | +$1.6 | 52% 89996-84488 (174484) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19969-19125 (39094) |
Invested
$263.29
Value
$229.9
PnL
-$33.39
Record
51%
7317-6947 (14264)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
—
PnL
-$2.01
Record
62%
43714-26712 (70426)
Invested
$1.78
Value
—
PnL
-$1.78
Record
58%
60375-44067 (104442)
Invested
$47.82
Value
$43.47
PnL
-$4.35
Record
61%
94573-59553 (154126)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$52.96
Value
$44.49
PnL
-$8.47
Record
63%
51691-30414 (82105)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.26
Value
$54.33
PnL
+$20.07
Record
64%
22669-12483 (35152)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$19.2
Value
$18
PnL
-$1.2
Record
55%
44647-37116 (81763)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$27.06
Value
$26.09
PnL
+$3.63
Record
64%
58097-32792 (90889)
ohioism<$100Invested
$19.43
Value
$35.08
PnL
+$15.65
Record
64%
39932-22817 (62749)
Invested
$36.63
Value
$37
PnL
+$0.37
Record
93%
23128-1756 (24884)
Invested
$18.61
Value
$38.37
PnL
+$19.76
Record
56%
57846-44687 (102533)
Invested
$16.66
Value
$34
PnL
+$17.34
Record
34%
18702-35698 (54400)
Invested
$17.34
Value
—
PnL
-$17.34
Record
66%
99051-51306 (150357)
Invested
$7.75
Value
$9.35
PnL
+$1.6
Record
52%
89996-84488 (174484)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19969-19125 (39094)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
asidjasiodja
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Up — $54.33
MayorMamdani
Up — $18
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $26.09
ohioism
Up — $35.08
hoodquant
Up — $37