Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
9
Up 63%
1 arb excluded
$179.03
-$46.76
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Upavg 9.1Β’ | $78.15 | $117.7 | +$39.55 | 46% 38107-44997 (83104) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 9.1Β’ | $54.48 | β | -$54.48 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 20.1Β’ | $23.67 | $117.7 | +$94.03 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 96Β’ | $38.4 | $40 | +$1.6 | 56% 57842-44686 (102528) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.4Β’ | $19.27 | β | -$19.27 | 51% 7310-6941 (14251) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.2Β’ | $8.93 | β | -$8.93 | 61% 94572-59547 (154119) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.5Β’ | $14.77 | β | -$14.77 | 54% 10751-9194 (19945) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 95Β’ | $14.25 | $15 | +$0.75 | 64% 22658-12474 (35132) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.6Β’ | $7.24 | β | -$7.24 | 64% 57982-32684 (90666) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 82Β’ | $5.19 | $6.33 | +$1.14 | 55% 44643-37114 (81757) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 66% 111986-58335 (170321) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.6Β’ | β | β | +$0 | 51% 19968-19120 (39088) |
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$78.15
Value
$117.7
PnL
+$39.55
Record
46%
38107-44997 (83104)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$1.6
Record
56%
57842-44686 (102528)
Invested
$19.27
Value
β
PnL
-$19.27
Record
51%
7310-6941 (14251)
Invested
$8.93
Value
β
PnL
-$8.93
Record
61%
94572-59547 (154119)
Invested
$14.77
Value
β
PnL
-$14.77
Record
54%
10751-9194 (19945)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.75
Record
64%
22658-12474 (35132)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$7.24
Value
β
PnL
-$7.24
Record
64%
57982-32684 (90666)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.19
Value
$6.33
PnL
+$1.14
Record
55%
44643-37114 (81757)
Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111986-58335 (170321)
Invested
β
Value
β
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19968-19120 (39088)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market

pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down β $40
ply-pm2
CTRUp β $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp β $0
thesidehustle
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
Down β $15

Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp β $0

MayorMamdani
Down β $6.33
antsaslyku
CTRUp β $0
devonpoll
CTRUp β $0