Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Down 73%
1 arb excluded
$153.13
-$44.25
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.1¢ | $8.25 | — | -$8.25 | 61% 94572-59547 (154119) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 84.3¢ | $84.44 | $60.9 | -$23.54 | 51% 7310-6941 (14251) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84.3¢ | $51.31 | $60.9 | +$9.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.8¢ | $33.13 | — | -$33.13 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $4.03 | — | -$4.03 | 59% 62157-43293 (105450) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.5¢ | $4.85 | — | -$4.85 | 46% 38107-44997 (83104) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.7¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 55% 44643-37114 (81757) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.7¢ | $15.07 | — | -$15.07 | 54% 10751-9194 (19945) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $30.04 | $33.74 | +$3.7 | 64% 22658-12474 (35132) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $29.06 | $29.35 | +$0.29 | 66% 98941-51224 (150165) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $27.1 | $29.14 | +$2.04 | 56% 57842-44686 (102528) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $12.47 | — | -$12.47 | 64% 57982-32684 (90666) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.22 | — | -$0.22 | 62% 43713-26708 (70421) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 58% 37704-26918 (64622) |
Invested
$8.25
Value
—
PnL
-$8.25
Record
61%
94572-59547 (154119)
Invested
$84.44
Value
$60.9
PnL
-$23.54
Record
51%
7310-6941 (14251)
Both legs:
Invested
$4.03
Value
—
PnL
-$4.03
Record
59%
62157-43293 (105450)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
—
PnL
-$4.85
Record
46%
38107-44997 (83104)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
55%
44643-37114 (81757)
Invested
$15.07
Value
—
PnL
-$15.07
Record
54%
10751-9194 (19945)
Invested
$30.04
Value
$33.74
PnL
+$3.7
Record
64%
22658-12474 (35132)
Invested
$29.06
Value
$29.35
PnL
+$0.29
Record
66%
98941-51224 (150165)
Invested
$27.1
Value
$29.14
PnL
+$2.04
Record
56%
57842-44686 (102528)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$12.47
Value
—
PnL
-$12.47
Record
64%
57982-32684 (90666)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
—
PnL
-$0.22
Record
62%
43713-26708 (70421)
Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
58%
37704-26918 (64622)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
asidjasiodja
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $33.74
Bonereaper
Up — $29.35
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $29.14
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0