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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 71%

Total Value

$269.34

Combined PnL

-$24.69

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$269.34

Total Shares269

Combined PnL+$56.95

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares482

Combined PnL-$81.64

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$60.46	$58.15	-$2.32	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 45.2¢	$49.81	$110.31	+$60.5	58% 12570-9233 (21803)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 99¢	$57.41	$50.08	-$7.33	58% 60375-44064 (104439)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 88¢	$44.7	$50.8	+$6.1	74% 102371-36367 (138738)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 6.3¢	$8.65	—	-$8.65	46% 38107-44997 (83104)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$7.2	—	-$7.2	55% 44643-37114 (81757)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$23.71	—	-$23.71	64% 22658-12474 (35132)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$22.23	—	-$22.23	51% 7310-6941 (14251)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3.1¢	$1.41	—	-$1.41	59% 62157-43293 (105450)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	63% 51684-30413 (82097)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$1.33	—	-$1.33	52% 89994-84473 (174467)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 20.5¢	$2.05	—	-$2.05	58% 37704-26918 (64622)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$5.21	—	-$5.21	61% 94572-59547 (154119)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 40.3¢	$35.89	—	-$7.22	54% 10751-9194 (19945)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$60.46

Value

$58.15

PnL

-$2.32

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

Invested

$49.81

Value

$110.31

PnL

+$60.5

Record

58%

12570-9233 (21803)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$57.41

Value

$50.08

PnL

-$7.33

Record

58%

60375-44064 (104439)

Invested

$44.7

Value

$50.8

PnL

+$6.1

Record

74%

102371-36367 (138738)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$8.65

Value

—

PnL

-$8.65

Record

46%

38107-44997 (83104)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

55%

44643-37114 (81757)

Invested

$23.71

Value

—

PnL

-$23.71

Record

64%

22658-12474 (35132)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$22.23

Value

—

PnL

-$22.23

Record

51%

7310-6941 (14251)

Invested

$1.41

Value

—

PnL

-$1.41

Record

59%

62157-43293 (105450)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

—

PnL

-$2.64

Record

63%

51684-30413 (82097)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

—

PnL

-$1.33

Record

52%

89994-84473 (174467)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

—

PnL

-$2.05

Record

58%

37704-26918 (64622)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

—

PnL

-$5.21

Record

61%

94572-59547 (154119)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$35.89

Value

—

PnL

-$7.22

Record

54%

10751-9194 (19945)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x674c5b5d...0ce20b

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793304900

Traders in this Market

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $58.15

wowitsamazing

Up — $110.31

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $50.08

BoneOhio

Up — $50.8

pspspsps5

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0x50f7

Down — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $0

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