Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$252.36
Smart Money Signal
10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $381.61 | $511.9 | +$130.29 | 51% 7272-6915 (14187) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 42¢ | $433.85 | — | -$433.85 | 58% 37673-26899 (64572) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 97.5¢ | $337.22 | $216.58 | -$33.7 | 48% 23211-25441 (48652) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 94.6¢ | $110.2 | $116 | +$5.8 | 55% 44610-37084 (81694) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.5¢ | $7.1 | — | -$7.1 | 46% 38100-44972 (83072) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $92.93 | $99.63 | +$6.7 | 63% 51644-30399 (82043) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 48.9¢ | $89.56 | $183.12 | +$93.56 | 34% 18690-35687 (54377) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $89.01 | $77.02 | -$11.99 | 52% 89954-84437 (174391) |
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $76.13 | $58.41 | -$17.72 | 61% 94531-59515 (154046) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.5¢ | $40.62 | $58.41 | +$17.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.8¢ | $35.51 | — | -$35.51 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $57.25 | $57.4 | +$4.45 | 64% 57982-32684 (90666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.4¢ | $38.68 | $57.4 | +$19.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.7¢ | $15.2 | — | -$15.2 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $89.68 | $59.99 | +$20.65 | 64% 22587-12434 (35021) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $34.12 | $50.18 | +$16.06 | 56% 57825-44673 (102498) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $14.4 | — | -$14.4 | 58% 12570-9233 (21803) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $11.53 | — | -$11.53 | 66% 98940-51224 (150164) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.35 | $9.25 | +$4.9 | 66% 111959-58297 (170256) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $29.19 | — | -$17.74 | 51% 19963-19114 (39077) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $0.05 | $0.05 | +$0 | 93% 23082-1754 (24836) |
Invested
$381.61
Value
$511.9
PnL
+$130.29
Record
51%
7272-6915 (14187)
Invested
$433.85
Value
—
PnL
-$433.85
Record
58%
37673-26899 (64572)
Invested
$337.22
Value
$216.58
PnL
-$33.7
Record
48%
23211-25441 (48652)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$110.2
Value
$116
PnL
+$5.8
Record
55%
44610-37084 (81694)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$7.1
Value
—
PnL
-$7.1
Record
46%
38100-44972 (83072)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$92.93
Value
$99.63
PnL
+$6.7
Record
63%
51644-30399 (82043)
Invested
$89.56
Value
$183.12
PnL
+$93.56
Record
34%
18690-35687 (54377)
Invested
$89.01
Value
$77.02
PnL
-$11.99
Record
52%
89954-84437 (174391)
Invested
$76.13
Value
$58.41
PnL
-$17.72
Record
61%
94531-59515 (154046)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$57.25
Value
$57.4
PnL
+$4.45
Record
64%
57982-32684 (90666)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.68
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$20.65
Record
64%
22587-12434 (35021)
Invested
$34.12
Value
$50.18
PnL
+$16.06
Record
56%
57825-44673 (102498)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
—
PnL
-$14.4
Record
58%
12570-9233 (21803)
Invested
$11.53
Value
—
PnL
-$11.53
Record
66%
98940-51224 (150164)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$9.25
PnL
+$4.9
Record
66%
111959-58297 (170256)
Invested
$29.19
Value
—
PnL
-$17.74
Record
51%
19963-19114 (39077)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
23082-1754 (24836)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
Down — $511.9
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $216.58
MayorMamdani
Down — $116
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $99.63
Little-big
Down — $183.12
dvasdkasodk
Down — $77.02
asidjasiodja
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded