Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Down 60%
$436.5
-$101.57
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 48.8¢ | $257.22 | — | -$257.22 | 51% 7193-6839 (14032) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $102.75 | $103.79 | +$1.04 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 49¢ | $80.65 | $164.74 | +$84.09 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.8¢ | $8.82 | — | -$8.82 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 26.8¢ | $23.9 | $89.13 | +$65.23 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $20.1 | — | -$20.1 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 10.2¢ | $5.16 | $50.66 | +$45.5 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $12.5 | — | -$12.5 | 58% 60303-44021 (104324) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $6.84 | $18 | +$11.16 | 64% 39890-22786 (62676) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $4.86 | — | -$4.86 | 63% 51591-30353 (81944) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $7.74 | — | -$7.74 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $0.42 | — | -$0.42 | 56% 57788-44629 (102417) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $5.8 | $10.18 | +$4.38 | 51% 19925-19088 (39013) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111894-58227 (170121) |
Invested
$257.22
Value
—
PnL
-$257.22
Record
51%
7193-6839 (14032)
Invested
$102.75
Value
$103.79
PnL
+$1.04
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
Invested
$80.65
Value
$164.74
PnL
+$84.09
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
Invested
$8.82
Value
—
PnL
-$8.82
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
Invested
$23.9
Value
$89.13
PnL
+$65.23
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
Invested
$20.1
Value
—
PnL
-$20.1
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.16
Value
$50.66
PnL
+$45.5
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$12.5
Value
—
PnL
-$12.5
Record
58%
60303-44021 (104324)
ohioism<$100Invested
$6.84
Value
$18
PnL
+$11.16
Record
64%
39890-22786 (62676)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
—
PnL
-$4.86
Record
63%
51591-30353 (81944)
Invested
$7.74
Value
—
PnL
-$7.74
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
Invested
$0.42
Value
—
PnL
-$0.42
Record
56%
57788-44629 (102417)
Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$10.18
PnL
+$4.38
Record
51%
19925-19088 (39013)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111894-58227 (170121)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $103.79
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $164.74
asidjasiodja
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $89.13
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
Up — $50.66
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
Up — $18
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0