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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 67%

Total Value

$318.69

Combined PnL

-$51.11

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 14 top traders (64%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$318.69

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$149.74

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares484

Combined PnL-$200.85

Down — 36%Up — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52¢	$107.52	$186	+$78.48	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$93.68	—	-$93.68	58% 50902-37035 (87937)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 46.7¢	$49.85	$106.82	+$56.97	58% 12551-9211 (21762)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$54.37	—	-$54.37	51% 7193-6839 (14032)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 33.7¢	$29.01	—	-$29.01	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 26.3¢	$13.32	—	-$13.32	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 82¢	$12.3	$15	+$2.7	64% 39890-22786 (62676)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$13.97	$10.7	+$11.59	65% 22438-12338 (34776)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 14.5¢	$5.96	—	-$5.96	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 22.8¢	$2.91	—	-$2.91	61% 94436-59427 (153863)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.14	—	-$0.14	59% 62118-43235 (105353)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$1.45	—	-$1.45	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$0.17	$0.17	+$0	93% 22987-1751 (24738)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19925-19088 (39013)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$107.52

Value

$186

PnL

+$78.48

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

Invested

$93.68

Value

—

PnL

-$93.68

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

Invested

$49.85

Value

$106.82

PnL

+$56.97

Record

58%

12551-9211 (21762)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$54.37

Value

—

PnL

-$54.37

Record

51%

7193-6839 (14032)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$29.01

Value

—

PnL

-$29.01

Record

57%

70359-53462 (123821)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$13.32

Value

—

PnL

-$13.32

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

Invested

$12.3

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.7

Record

64%

39890-22786 (62676)

Invested

$13.97

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$11.59

Record

65%

22438-12338 (34776)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

—

PnL

-$5.96

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$2.91

Value

—

PnL

-$2.91

Record

61%

94436-59427 (153863)

Invested

$0.14

Value

—

PnL

-$0.14

Record

59%

62118-43235 (105353)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

—

PnL

-$1.45

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0

Record

93%

22987-1751 (24738)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19925-19088 (39013)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 14 top traders (64%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe00b7fd2...5e9fad

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793284800

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $186

PBot-6

Up — $0

wowitsamazing

Down — $106.82

ply-pm2

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0

ohioism

Down — $15

aaa221

Down — $10.7

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

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