Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$257.77
-$14.27
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 21.7¢ | $84.11 | $101.13 | +$17.02 | 51% 7193-6839 (14032) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.4¢ | $39.87 | $101.13 | +$61.26 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.7¢ | $44.24 | — | -$44.24 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $59.05 | $81.54 | +$22.49 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.5¢ | $20.9 | — | -$20.9 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $24.9 | $29.99 | +$5.09 | 54% 10700-9147 (19847) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $34.23 | $35 | +$0.77 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.04 | — | -$1.04 | 59% 62118-43235 (105353) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 46% 38045-44903 (82948) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $9.3 | $10.11 | +$0.81 | 51% 19925-19088 (39013) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.7¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.7¢ | $8.1 | — | -$8.1 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.5¢ | $3.64 | — | -$3.64 | 64% 39890-22786 (62676) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $1.96 | — | -$1.96 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
Invested
$84.11
Value
$101.13
PnL
+$17.02
Record
51%
7193-6839 (14032)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.05
Value
$81.54
PnL
+$22.49
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$20.9
Value
—
PnL
-$20.9
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$5.09
Record
54%
10700-9147 (19847)
Invested
$34.23
Value
$35
PnL
+$0.77
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
Invested
$1.04
Value
—
PnL
-$1.04
Record
59%
62118-43235 (105353)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
46%
38045-44903 (82948)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$0.81
Record
51%
19925-19088 (39013)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$8.1
Value
—
PnL
-$8.1
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
—
PnL
-$3.64
Record
64%
39890-22786 (62676)
Invested
$1.96
Value
—
PnL
-$1.96
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $81.54
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
thesidehustle
Up — $29.99
asidjasiodja
Up — $35
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
Up — $10.11
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0