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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 60%

Total Value

$224.07

Combined PnL

-$100.92

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares805

Combined PnL-$187.85

Up6 traders

Total Value$224.07

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$86.92

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 10.4¢	$33.37	—	-$33.37	48% 23186-25395 (48581)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 24.5¢	$51.2	—	-$51.2	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 40.3¢	$49.69	$123.33	+$73.64	58% 12551-9211 (21762)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 30.8¢	$31.94	—	-$31.94	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$40.47	—	-$40.47	51% 7193-6839 (14032)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 93¢	$50.14	$46	-$4.14	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$15.91	—	-$15.91	54% 10700-9147 (19847)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 22.7¢	$6.48	—	-$6.48	61% 94436-59427 (153863)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 23.7¢	$6.61	—	-$6.61	63% 51591-30353 (81944)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 52¢	$10.4	$20	+$9.6	58% 60303-44021 (104324)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$14.14	$17.27	+$3.13	65% 22438-12338 (34776)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 67¢	$4.55	$5	+$0.45	66% 125199-64428 (189627)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 66¢	$8.22	$12.46	+$4.24	56% 57788-44629 (102417)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$0.67	—	-$0.67	58% 50902-37035 (87937)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$33.37

Value

—

PnL

-$33.37

Record

48%

23186-25395 (48581)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$51.2

Value

—

PnL

-$51.2

Record

57%

70359-53462 (123821)

Invested

$49.69

Value

$123.33

PnL

+$73.64

Record

58%

12551-9211 (21762)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$31.94

Value

—

PnL

-$31.94

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$40.47

Value

—

PnL

-$40.47

Record

51%

7193-6839 (14032)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$50.14

Value

$46

PnL

-$4.14

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$15.91

Value

—

PnL

-$15.91

Record

54%

10700-9147 (19847)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

—

PnL

-$6.48

Record

61%

94436-59427 (153863)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.61

Value

—

PnL

-$6.61

Record

63%

51591-30353 (81944)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$10.4

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.6

Record

58%

60303-44021 (104324)

Invested

$14.14

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$3.13

Record

65%

22438-12338 (34776)

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

66%

125199-64428 (189627)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

$12.46

PnL

+$4.24

Record

56%

57788-44629 (102417)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

Invested

$0.67

Value

—

PnL

-$0.67

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xacffdc73...f2cf96

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793281200

Traders in this Market

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

wowitsamazing

Up — $123.33

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $46

thesidehustle

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Down — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $20

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