Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 91%
1 arb excluded
$614.46
$45.18
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 70.6¢ | $164.73 | $189.37 | +$24.64 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.6¢ | $63.74 | $45 | -$18.74 | 51% 7184-6826 (14010) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.6¢ | $45.84 | — | -$45.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.8¢ | $17.9 | $45 | +$27.1 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Downavg 95.5¢ | $60.1 | $62.92 | +$2.83 | 48% 23173-25375 (48548) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $65.45 | $56.9 | -$8.55 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $58.06 | $101.47 | +$43.41 | 58% 60288-44012 (104300) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $52.55 | $49.63 | -$2.92 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.9¢ | $41.35 | — | -$41.35 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $23.98 | $22.11 | -$1.87 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $19.04 | $34 | +$14.96 | 56% 57773-44618 (102391) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $18.45 | $20.5 | +$2.05 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $13.45 | $15.48 | +$2.03 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $8.56 | $17.07 | +$8.51 | 54% 10698-9140 (19838) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $2.81 | — | +$1.45 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19919-19076 (38995) |
Invested
$164.73
Value
$189.37
PnL
+$24.64
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Invested
$63.74
Value
$45
PnL
-$18.74
Record
51%
7184-6826 (14010)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.1
Value
$62.92
PnL
+$2.83
Record
48%
23173-25375 (48548)
Invested
$65.45
Value
$56.9
PnL
-$8.55
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$58.06
Value
$101.47
PnL
+$43.41
Record
58%
60288-44012 (104300)
Invested
$52.55
Value
$49.63
PnL
-$2.92
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
Invested
$41.35
Value
—
PnL
-$41.35
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
Invested
$23.98
Value
$22.11
PnL
-$1.87
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$34
PnL
+$14.96
Record
56%
57773-44618 (102391)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.45
Value
$20.5
PnL
+$2.05
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Invested
$13.45
Value
$15.48
PnL
+$2.03
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$8.56
Value
$17.07
PnL
+$8.51
Record
54%
10698-9140 (19838)
Invested
$2.81
Value
—
PnL
+$1.45
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19919-19076 (38995)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $189.37
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $62.92
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $56.9
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $101.47
asidjasiodja
Down — $49.63
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $22.11
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $34
MayorMamdani
Down — $20.5