Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$287.04
-$40.5
Smart Money Signal
7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $56.78 | $84.03 | +$27.24 | 51% 7184-6826 (14010) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.5¢ | $28.11 | $84.03 | +$55.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25¢ | $28.68 | — | -$28.68 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $56.75 | $103.77 | +$47.02 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $35.39 | — | -$35.39 | 54% 10698-9140 (19838) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $27.56 | $30.64 | +$3.08 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $28.88 | — | -$28.88 | 56% 57773-44618 (102391) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $23.46 | — | -$23.46 | 58% 60288-44012 (104300) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 30.8¢ | $12.55 | $24.35 | +$11.8 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $18.84 | $15.55 | -$3.29 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $9.82 | — | -$9.82 | 58% 50888-37027 (87915) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.7¢ | $0.81 | — | -$0.81 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $9.75 | $12.04 | +$2.29 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $7.1 | — | -$7.1 | 51% 19919-19076 (38995) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 28.9¢ | $4.7 | $10.19 | +$5.49 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $5.37 | $6.47 | +$1.1 | 63% 51566-30344 (81910) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $0.12 | — | -$0.12 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
Invested
$56.78
Value
$84.03
PnL
+$27.24
Record
51%
7184-6826 (14010)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.75
Value
$103.77
PnL
+$47.02
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$35.39
Value
—
PnL
-$35.39
Record
54%
10698-9140 (19838)
Invested
$27.56
Value
$30.64
PnL
+$3.08
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$28.88
Value
—
PnL
-$28.88
Record
56%
57773-44618 (102391)
Invested
$23.46
Value
—
PnL
-$23.46
Record
58%
60288-44012 (104300)
Invested
$12.55
Value
$24.35
PnL
+$11.8
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
Invested
$18.84
Value
$15.55
PnL
-$3.29
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
Invested
$9.82
Value
—
PnL
-$9.82
Record
58%
50888-37027 (87915)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.81
Value
—
PnL
-$0.81
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$12.04
PnL
+$2.29
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
Invested
$7.1
Value
—
PnL
-$7.1
Record
51%
19919-19076 (38995)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$10.19
PnL
+$5.49
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$5.37
Value
$6.47
PnL
+$1.1
Record
63%
51566-30344 (81910)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Invested
$0.12
Value
—
PnL
-$0.12
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $103.77
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $30.64
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $24.35
aaa221
Down — $15.55
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0