Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$248.73
$29.5
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 26.9¢ | $78.04 | $120 | +$41.96 | 51% 7170-6800 (13970) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $37.2 | $120 | +$82.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.9¢ | $40.84 | — | -$40.84 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $47.3 | $95.85 | +$48.55 | 57% 70317-53442 (123759) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.7¢ | $3.82 | — | -$3.82 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $12.3 | — | -$12.3 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 67.7¢ | $10.49 | $11.58 | +$1.09 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $7.98 | $11.29 | +$3.31 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $10 | +$2.5 | 51% 19907-19065 (38972) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 56% 57762-44611 (102373) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.8¢ | $4.63 | — | -$4.63 | 59% 62097-43210 (105307) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.21 | — | -$0.21 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
Invested
$78.04
Value
$120
PnL
+$41.96
Record
51%
7170-6800 (13970)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.3
Value
$95.85
PnL
+$48.55
Record
57%
70317-53442 (123759)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.82
Value
—
PnL
-$3.82
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
Invested
$12.3
Value
—
PnL
-$12.3
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$11.58
PnL
+$1.09
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$11.29
PnL
+$3.31
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.5
Record
51%
19907-19065 (38972)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
56%
57762-44611 (102373)
Invested
$4.63
Value
—
PnL
-$4.63
Record
59%
62097-43210 (105307)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.21
Value
—
PnL
-$0.21
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Up — $95.85
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
asdaefef
Up — $11.58
asidjasiodja
Up — $11.29
devonpoll
Up — $10
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
CTRDown — $0