Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 55%
2 arb excluded
$353.62
-$25.62
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 38.4¢ | $135.13 | $111.96 | -$23.17 | 51% 7170-6800 (13970) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.4¢ | $101.74 | — | -$101.74 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.8¢ | $33.39 | $111.96 | +$78.57 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $121.25 | $30.13 | -$91.12 | 57% 70317-53442 (123759) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.2¢ | $104.37 | — | -$104.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56¢ | $16.88 | $30.13 | +$13.25 | |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $58.95 | $51.46 | -$7.49 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 39.7¢ | $23.82 | $52 | +$34.65 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $38.06 | $50.08 | +$12.02 | 64% 39870-22776 (62646) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.7¢ | $20.09 | — | -$20.09 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $23 | $23.39 | +$0.39 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $24.94 | — | -$24.94 | 74% 102303-36356 (138659) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $17.98 | $13.09 | -$4.89 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $17.37 | — | -$17.37 | 58% 60278-44004 (104282) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $10.97 | $21.51 | +$10.54 | 56% 57762-44611 (102373) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.8¢ | $4.88 | — | -$4.88 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 11.9¢ | $3.57 | — | -$3.57 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19907-19065 (38972) |
Invested
$135.13
Value
$111.96
PnL
-$23.17
Record
51%
7170-6800 (13970)
Both legs:
Invested
$121.25
Value
$30.13
PnL
-$91.12
Record
57%
70317-53442 (123759)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.95
Value
$51.46
PnL
-$7.49
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
Invested
$23.82
Value
$52
PnL
+$34.65
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
ohioism<$100Invested
$38.06
Value
$50.08
PnL
+$12.02
Record
64%
39870-22776 (62646)
Invested
$20.09
Value
—
PnL
-$20.09
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
Invested
$23
Value
$23.39
PnL
+$0.39
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$24.94
Value
—
PnL
-$24.94
Record
74%
102303-36356 (138659)
Invested
$17.98
Value
$13.09
PnL
-$4.89
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
Invested
$17.37
Value
—
PnL
-$17.37
Record
58%
60278-44004 (104282)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$21.51
PnL
+$10.54
Record
56%
57762-44611 (102373)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.88
Value
—
PnL
-$4.88
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.57
Value
—
PnL
-$3.57
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19907-19065 (38972)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asidjasiodja
Down — $51.46
aaa221
Down — $52
ohioism
Down — $50.08
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $23.39
BoneOhio
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $13.09
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0