Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$95.61
-$12.97
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $52.22 | $44.85 | -$7.37 | 51% 7170-6800 (13970) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.7¢ | $33.53 | — | -$33.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.7¢ | $18.69 | $44.85 | +$26.16 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $21.1 | $23.14 | +$2.04 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $33.23 | $15.56 | -$2.32 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 91.6¢ | $13.64 | $12.05 | -$1.59 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $5.72 | — | -$5.72 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $2.71 | — | -$2.71 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.96 | — | -$0.96 | 59% 62097-43210 (105307) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.8¢ | $1.72 | — | -$1.72 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
Invested
$52.22
Value
$44.85
PnL
-$7.37
Record
51%
7170-6800 (13970)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.1
Value
$23.14
PnL
+$2.04
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Invested
$33.23
Value
$15.56
PnL
-$2.32
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
Invested
$13.64
Value
$12.05
PnL
-$1.59
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
Invested
$5.72
Value
—
PnL
-$5.72
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
—
PnL
-$2.71
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
Invested
$0.96
Value
—
PnL
-$0.96
Record
59%
62097-43210 (105307)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.72
Value
—
PnL
-$1.72
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
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