Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
10
Up 78%
1 arb excluded
$479.93
-$23.2
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 43.9Β’ | $281.16 | $327.54 | +$46.38 | 51% 7152-6771 (13923) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 43.9Β’ | $190.94 | β | -$190.94 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 27.5Β’ | $90.22 | $327.54 | +$237.32 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 33.1Β’ | $33.8 | $101.99 | +$68.2 | 58% 37542-26799 (64341) |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.4Β’ | $44.56 | β | -$44.56 | 49% 77787-81260 (159047) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Downavg 61Β’ | $30.74 | $50.39 | +$19.65 | 64% 39845-22764 (62609) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 56.7Β’ | $19.58 | β | -$19.58 | 52% 89759-84223 (173982) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.1Β’ | $16.21 | β | -$16.21 | 61% 94330-59348 (153678) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.3Β’ | $11 | β | -$11 | 66% 125065-64347 (189412) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 59Β’ | $5.9 | β | -$5.9 | 55% 44432-36934 (81366) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.8Β’ | $31.91 | β | -$13.2 | 65% 22322-12252 (34574) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3Β’ | $0.6 | β | -$0.6 | 59% 62091-43202 (105293) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 59Β’ | β | β | +$0 | 51% 19894-19056 (38950) |
Invested
$281.16
Value
$327.54
PnL
+$46.38
Record
51%
7152-6771 (13923)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.8
Value
$101.99
PnL
+$68.2
Record
58%
37542-26799 (64341)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$44.56
Value
β
PnL
-$44.56
Record
49%
77787-81260 (159047)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30.74
Value
$50.39
PnL
+$19.65
Record
64%
39845-22764 (62609)
Invested
$19.58
Value
β
PnL
-$19.58
Record
52%
89759-84223 (173982)
Invested
$16.21
Value
β
PnL
-$16.21
Record
61%
94330-59348 (153678)
Invested
$11
Value
β
PnL
-$11
Record
66%
125065-64347 (189412)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5.9
Value
β
PnL
-$5.9
Record
55%
44432-36934 (81366)
Invested
$31.91
Value
β
PnL
-$13.2
Record
65%
22322-12252 (34574)
Invested
$0.6
Value
β
PnL
-$0.6
Record
59%
62091-43202 (105293)
Invested
β
Value
β
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19894-19056 (38950)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down β $101.99

OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp β $0

ohioism
Down β $50.39
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp β $0
asdaefef
CTRUp β $0

MayorMamdani
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
CTRUp β $0
0x50f7
CTRUp β $0