Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
$830.63
-$0.17
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $312.84 | $316 | +$3.16 | 93% 22893-1747 (24640) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.6¢ | $173.3 | $242.86 | +$69.56 | 51% 7133-6748 (13881) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.6¢ | $96.74 | — | -$96.74 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.5¢ | $76.57 | $242.86 | +$166.3 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $109.89 | $111 | +$1.11 | 58% 37531-26786 (64317) |
 UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $49.79 | $60.45 | +$10.66 | 63% 51496-30306 (81802) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.1¢ | $47.79 | $60.45 | +$12.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $42.78 | $50.8 | +$8.02 | 74% 102283-36351 (138634) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 34.2¢ | $11.48 | $33.52 | +$22.04 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.1¢ | $7.85 | — | -$7.85 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $13.6 | — | -$13.6 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $12.66 | $16 | +$3.34 | 58% 60259-43977 (104236) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.2¢ | $8.48 | — | -$8.48 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 58% 50863-37010 (87873) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19890-19043 (38933) |
Invested
$312.84
Value
$316
PnL
+$3.16
Record
93%
22893-1747 (24640)
Invested
$173.3
Value
$242.86
PnL
+$69.56
Record
51%
7133-6748 (13881)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.89
Value
$111
PnL
+$1.11
Record
58%
37531-26786 (64317)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$49.79
Value
$60.45
PnL
+$10.66
Record
63%
51496-30306 (81802)
Both legs:
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$42.78
Value
$50.8
PnL
+$8.02
Record
74%
102283-36351 (138634)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.48
Value
$33.52
PnL
+$22.04
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$7.85
Value
—
PnL
-$7.85
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$13.6
Value
—
PnL
-$13.6
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$12.66
Value
$16
PnL
+$3.34
Record
58%
60259-43977 (104236)
Invested
$8.48
Value
—
PnL
-$8.48
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
58%
50863-37010 (87873)
Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19890-19043 (38933)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $316
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $111
UpandDownSyndrome
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Down — $50.8
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $33.52
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $16
asdaefef
CTRUp — $0