Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$257.07
$5.08
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 85.6¢ | $112.51 | $102.14 | -$10.38 | 51% 7133-6748 (13881) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.6¢ | $87.4 | $102.14 | +$14.74 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.5¢ | $25.11 | — | -$25.11 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $70.65 | $81.72 | +$11.07 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.7¢ | $8.53 | — | -$8.53 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $33.29 | $33.97 | +$0.68 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $10.1 | $10 | -$0.1 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $13.12 | $19.25 | +$6.13 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $10 | +$2.1 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 51% 19890-19043 (38933) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $1.55 | — | -$1.55 | 64% 39836-22759 (62595) |
Invested
$112.51
Value
$102.14
PnL
-$10.38
Record
51%
7133-6748 (13881)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.65
Value
$81.72
PnL
+$11.07
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8.53
Value
—
PnL
-$8.53
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$33.29
Value
$33.97
PnL
+$0.68
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
Invested
$13.12
Value
$19.25
PnL
+$6.13
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.1
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
51%
19890-19043 (38933)
Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.55
Value
—
PnL
-$1.55
Record
64%
39836-22759 (62595)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $81.72
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $33.97
thesidehustle
Down — $10
aaa221
Down — $19.25
asdaefef
Down — $10
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0