Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Down 58%
1 arb excluded
$265.08
-$87.87
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $225.11 | $162.56 | -$62.55 | 51% 7133-6748 (13881) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.1¢ | $118.89 | $162.56 | +$43.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.5¢ | $106.21 | — | -$106.21 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 86.7¢ | $55.94 | $50.21 | -$1.57 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $33.59 | — | -$33.59 | 34% 18628-35622 (54250) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $46.75 | — | -$46.75 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $30.8 | $31.31 | +$0.51 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $3.01 | — | -$3.01 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $7.18 | $11 | +$3.82 | 46% 37996-44793 (82789) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 4.5¢ | $1.61 | — | -$1.61 | 59% 62084-43185 (105269) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.5¢ | $5.55 | — | -$5.55 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $5 | +$0.65 | 62% 43652-26628 (70280) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $2.48 | — | -$2.48 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $6.4 | $5 | +$2.15 | 51% 19890-19043 (38933) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
Invested
$225.11
Value
$162.56
PnL
-$62.55
Record
51%
7133-6748 (13881)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.94
Value
$50.21
PnL
-$1.57
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$33.59
Value
—
PnL
-$33.59
Record
34%
18628-35622 (54250)
Invested
$46.75
Value
—
PnL
-$46.75
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$31.31
PnL
+$0.51
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.01
Value
—
PnL
-$3.01
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$7.18
Value
$11
PnL
+$3.82
Record
46%
37996-44793 (82789)
Invested
$1.61
Value
—
PnL
-$1.61
Record
59%
62084-43185 (105269)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5.55
Value
—
PnL
-$5.55
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
62%
43652-26628 (70280)
Invested
$2.48
Value
—
PnL
-$2.48
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.15
Record
51%
19890-19043 (38933)
Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Up — $50.21
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
thesidehustle
Up — $31.31
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
Up — $11
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $5