Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$167.85
-$81.11
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $104.21 | $100.76 | -$3.45 | 51% 7133-6748 (13881) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10.3¢ | $24.61 | — | -$24.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79¢ | $79.6 | $100.76 | +$21.16 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.1¢ | $5.7 | — | -$5.7 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.3¢ | $49.4 | — | -$49.4 | 34% 18628-35622 (54250) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.9¢ | $10.87 | — | -$10.87 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $28.94 | $26 | -$2.94 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.3¢ | $16.2 | — | -$16.2 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $1.58 | — | -$1.58 | 63% 51496-30306 (81802) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 82.5¢ | $24.57 | $17.51 | +$4.86 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 86.7¢ | $13.35 | $15.4 | +$2.05 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $1.26 | — | -$1.26 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.53 | — | -$0.53 | 59% 62084-43185 (105269) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $7.52 | $8.17 | +$0.65 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $0.19 | — | -$0.19 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19890-19043 (38933) |
Invested
$104.21
Value
$100.76
PnL
-$3.45
Record
51%
7133-6748 (13881)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
—
PnL
-$5.7
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$49.4
Value
—
PnL
-$49.4
Record
34%
18628-35622 (54250)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$10.87
Value
—
PnL
-$10.87
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$28.94
Value
$26
PnL
-$2.94
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$16.2
Value
—
PnL
-$16.2
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1.58
Value
—
PnL
-$1.58
Record
63%
51496-30306 (81802)
Invested
$24.57
Value
$17.51
PnL
+$4.86
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$13.35
Value
$15.4
PnL
+$2.05
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
Invested
$1.26
Value
—
PnL
-$1.26
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
$0.53
Value
—
PnL
-$0.53
Record
59%
62084-43185 (105269)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$0.65
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$0.19
Value
—
PnL
-$0.19
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19890-19043 (38933)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
asidjasiodja
Up — $26
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $17.51
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $15.4
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0