Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$581.05
-$1.28
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $93.51 | $122.54 | +$29.03 | 51% 7133-6748 (13881) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.5¢ | $24.94 | — | -$24.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56¢ | $68.57 | $122.54 | +$53.97 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.9¢ | $9.87 | — | -$9.87 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 98¢ | $149.94 | $153 | +$3.06 | 48% 23152-25343 (48495) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $34.11 | $28.25 | -$5.86 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $34.8 | $40 | +$5.2 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $5.93 | — | -$5.93 | 46% 37996-44793 (82789) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $44.24 | $50.28 | +$6.04 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $45.77 | $50.28 | +$4.51 | 74% 102283-36351 (138634) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $41.14 | $46.22 | +$5.08 | 58% 60259-43977 (104236) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94.3¢ | $35.43 | $37.56 | +$2.13 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $17.3 | $20.29 | +$2.99 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $15.38 | $15.44 | +$0.06 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.1¢ | $15.2 | $17.18 | +$1.98 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.8¢ | $10.69 | — | -$10.69 | 58% 37531-26786 (64317) |
Invested
$93.51
Value
$122.54
PnL
+$29.03
Record
51%
7133-6748 (13881)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$9.87
Value
—
PnL
-$9.87
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$149.94
Value
$153
PnL
+$3.06
Record
48%
23152-25343 (48495)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$34.11
Value
$28.25
PnL
-$5.86
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$5.2
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.93
Value
—
PnL
-$5.93
Record
46%
37996-44793 (82789)
Invested
$44.24
Value
$50.28
PnL
+$6.04
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$45.77
Value
$50.28
PnL
+$4.51
Record
74%
102283-36351 (138634)
Invested
$41.14
Value
$46.22
PnL
+$5.08
Record
58%
60259-43977 (104236)
Invested
$35.43
Value
$37.56
PnL
+$2.13
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$17.3
Value
$20.29
PnL
+$2.99
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$15.44
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$17.18
PnL
+$1.98
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$10.69
Value
—
PnL
-$10.69
Record
58%
37531-26786 (64317)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $153
MayorMamdani
Down — $28.25
thesidehustle
Down — $40
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50.28
BoneOhio
Down — $50.28
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $46.22
asidjasiodja
Down — $37.56