Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Up 50%
2 arb excluded
$783.74
-$73.17
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $167.4 | $136.36 | -$31.04 | 51% 7133-6748 (13881) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26¢ | $94.61 | — | -$94.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.4¢ | $72.79 | $136.36 | +$63.58 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 98.5¢ | $240.88 | $211 | -$29.88 | 58% 37531-26786 (64317) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $242.55 | $245 | +$2.45 | 93% 22893-1747 (24640) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 67.5¢ | $55.25 | $58.21 | +$2.95 | 54% 10645-9096 (19741) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.5¢ | $39.27 | $58.21 | +$18.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.9¢ | $15.99 | — | -$15.99 | |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $28.24 | — | -$28.24 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Upavg 56.9¢ | $41.22 | $72.43 | +$31.21 | 48% 23152-25343 (48495) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.6¢ | $39.75 | — | -$39.75 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $25.33 | $30.83 | +$5.51 | 63% 51496-30306 (81802) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $20.23 | $19.91 | -$0.32 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $7.7 | $10 | +$2.3 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.3¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $5.16 | — | -$5.16 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.5¢ | $2.48 | — | -$2.48 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19890-19043 (38933) |
Invested
$167.4
Value
$136.36
PnL
-$31.04
Record
51%
7133-6748 (13881)
Both legs:
Invested
$240.88
Value
$211
PnL
-$29.88
Record
58%
37531-26786 (64317)
Invested
$242.55
Value
$245
PnL
+$2.45
Record
93%
22893-1747 (24640)
Invested
$55.25
Value
$58.21
PnL
+$2.95
Record
54%
10645-9096 (19741)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$28.24
Value
—
PnL
-$28.24
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$41.22
Value
$72.43
PnL
+$31.21
Record
48%
23152-25343 (48495)
Invested
$39.75
Value
—
PnL
-$39.75
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$25.33
Value
$30.83
PnL
+$5.51
Record
63%
51496-30306 (81802)
Invested
$20.23
Value
$19.91
PnL
-$0.32
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.3
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$5.16
Value
—
PnL
-$5.16
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$2.48
Value
—
PnL
-$2.48
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19890-19043 (38933)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $211
hoodquant
Up — $245
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Up — $72.43
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $30.83
aaa221
Up — $19.91
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $10