Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Up 60%
$97.3
-$87.38
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $90.01 | — | -$90.01 | 51% 7108-6729 (13837) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 47.2¢ | $35.8 | $53.33 | +$17.53 | 55% 17546-14181 (31727) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $3.03 | — | -$3.03 | 49% 77753-81199 (158952) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 46% 37988-44761 (82749) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $26.08 | $24 | -$2.08 | 61% 94254-59306 (153560) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $12.28 | $14.97 | +$2.69 | 55% 44381-36870 (81251) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $9.78 | — | -$9.78 | 66% 111786-58127 (169913) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $2.93 | — | -$2.93 | 65% 22230-12205 (34435) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $5 | +$3.15 | 54% 10628-9072 (19700) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.29 | — | -$0.29 | 59% 62072-43165 (105237) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19879-19038 (38917) |
Invested
$90.01
Value
—
PnL
-$90.01
Record
51%
7108-6729 (13837)
Invested
$35.8
Value
$53.33
PnL
+$17.53
Record
55%
17546-14181 (31727)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.03
Value
—
PnL
-$3.03
Record
49%
77753-81199 (158952)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
46%
37988-44761 (82749)
Invested
$26.08
Value
$24
PnL
-$2.08
Record
61%
94254-59306 (153560)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.28
Value
$14.97
PnL
+$2.69
Record
55%
44381-36870 (81251)
Invested
$9.78
Value
—
PnL
-$9.78
Record
66%
111786-58127 (169913)
Invested
$2.93
Value
—
PnL
-$2.93
Record
65%
22230-12205 (34435)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.15
Record
54%
10628-9072 (19700)
Invested
$0.29
Value
—
PnL
-$0.29
Record
59%
62072-43165 (105237)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19879-19038 (38917)
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