Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$539.69
-$56.5
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $284.95 | $329.91 | +$44.97 | 51% 7108-6729 (13837) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.4¢ | $199.6 | — | -$199.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.9¢ | $85.35 | $329.91 | +$244.56 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 46.9¢ | $19.68 | $38.56 | +$18.88 | 63% 51474-30294 (81768) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $46.94 | — | -$46.94 | 61% 94254-59306 (153560) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $28.64 | — | -$28.64 | 58% 60246-43973 (104219) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 28.3¢ | $22.33 | $39.99 | +$17.66 | 54% 10628-9072 (19700) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $24.44 | — | -$24.44 | 55% 44381-36870 (81251) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $19.85 | — | -$19.85 | 55% 17546-14181 (31727) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 75.1¢ | $34.69 | — | -$19.59 | 65% 22230-12205 (34435) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 96.6¢ | $29.49 | $21.92 | -$7.57 | 66% 124974-64321 (189295) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 23.3¢ | $11.67 | $50.17 | +$38.5 | 49% 77753-81199 (158952) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $18.99 | — | -$18.99 | 64% 39822-22752 (62574) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 36.3¢ | $9.6 | $16.25 | +$6.65 | 52% 89700-84165 (173865) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $2.93 | $26.6 | +$23.67 | 46% 37988-44761 (82749) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $4.94 | $5.88 | +$0.94 | 66% 111786-58127 (169913) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $4 | $5.41 | +$1.41 | 56% 57718-44587 (102305) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $5 | +$1.8 | 58% 37525-26772 (64297) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19879-19038 (38917) |
Invested
$284.95
Value
$329.91
PnL
+$44.97
Record
51%
7108-6729 (13837)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$19.68
Value
$38.56
PnL
+$18.88
Record
63%
51474-30294 (81768)
Invested
$46.94
Value
—
PnL
-$46.94
Record
61%
94254-59306 (153560)
Invested
$28.64
Value
—
PnL
-$28.64
Record
58%
60246-43973 (104219)
Invested
$22.33
Value
$39.99
PnL
+$17.66
Record
54%
10628-9072 (19700)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$24.44
Value
—
PnL
-$24.44
Record
55%
44381-36870 (81251)
Invested
$19.85
Value
—
PnL
-$19.85
Record
55%
17546-14181 (31727)
Invested
$34.69
Value
—
PnL
-$19.59
Record
65%
22230-12205 (34435)
Invested
$29.49
Value
$21.92
PnL
-$7.57
Record
66%
124974-64321 (189295)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.67
Value
$50.17
PnL
+$38.5
Record
49%
77753-81199 (158952)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$18.99
Value
—
PnL
-$18.99
Record
64%
39822-22752 (62574)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$6.65
Record
52%
89700-84165 (173865)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$2.93
Value
$26.6
PnL
+$23.67
Record
46%
37988-44761 (82749)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$5.88
PnL
+$0.94
Record
66%
111786-58127 (169913)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.41
PnL
+$1.41
Record
56%
57718-44587 (102305)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.8
Record
58%
37525-26772 (64297)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19879-19038 (38917)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $38.56
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
Down — $39.99
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $21.92
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $50.17