Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$471.66
$20.03
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $200.17 | $195.44 | -$4.72 | 51% 7108-6729 (13837) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.6¢ | $137.92 | $195.44 | +$57.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.8¢ | $62.24 | — | -$62.24 | |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $55.53 | $51.73 | -$3.8 | 54% 10628-9072 (19700) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 93.8¢ | $56.28 | $60 | +$3.72 | 55% 44381-36870 (81251) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $16 | $50 | +$34 | 34% 18620-35608 (54228) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $35.83 | $32 | -$3.83 | 61% 94254-59306 (153560) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $27.5 | — | -$27.5 | 55% 17546-14181 (31727) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 47.2¢ | $13.31 | $28.18 | +$14.87 | 65% 22230-12205 (34435) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $11.88 | — | -$11.88 | 49% 77753-81199 (158952) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.87 | $13 | +$0.13 | 66% 124974-64321 (189295) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $4.9 | $11.95 | +$7.05 | 62% 43648-26624 (70272) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $9.64 | $11.8 | +$2.16 | 63% 51474-30294 (81768) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $3.9 | $10 | +$6.1 | 64% 39822-22752 (62574) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $4.95 | $7.57 | +$2.62 | 66% 111786-58127 (169913) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 51% 19879-19038 (38917) |
Invested
$200.17
Value
$195.44
PnL
-$4.72
Record
51%
7108-6729 (13837)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.53
Value
$51.73
PnL
-$3.8
Record
54%
10628-9072 (19700)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$56.28
Value
$60
PnL
+$3.72
Record
55%
44381-36870 (81251)
Invested
$16
Value
$50
PnL
+$34
Record
34%
18620-35608 (54228)
Invested
$35.83
Value
$32
PnL
-$3.83
Record
61%
94254-59306 (153560)
Invested
$27.5
Value
—
PnL
-$27.5
Record
55%
17546-14181 (31727)
Invested
$13.31
Value
$28.18
PnL
+$14.87
Record
65%
22230-12205 (34435)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$11.88
Value
—
PnL
-$11.88
Record
49%
77753-81199 (158952)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
66%
124974-64321 (189295)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$11.95
PnL
+$7.05
Record
62%
43648-26624 (70272)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$9.64
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$2.16
Record
63%
51474-30294 (81768)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.1
Record
64%
39822-22752 (62574)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$7.57
PnL
+$2.62
Record
66%
111786-58127 (169913)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
51%
19879-19038 (38917)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $51.73
MayorMamdani
Down — $60
Little-big
Down — $50
asidjasiodja
Down — $32
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $28.18
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $13
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $11.95