Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 90% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 100%
1 arb excluded
$504.99
$74.26
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $133.48 | $160 | +$26.52 | 51% 7062-6703 (13765) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $112 | $160 | +$48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 11.6¢ | $21.48 | — | -$21.48 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $97.35 | $126.81 | +$29.46 | 55% 17500-14140 (31640) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $49.36 | $60.21 | +$10.85 | 49% 77653-81002 (158655) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $37.44 | $50 | +$12.56 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $13.68 | $13 | -$0.68 | 55% 44344-36830 (81174) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $25.33 | $39.45 | +$14.12 | 65% 22160-12167 (34327) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97.2¢ | $22.05 | $22.16 | +$0.11 | 61% 94214-59259 (153473) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 91.4¢ | $14.94 | $16.35 | +$1.41 | 66% 124908-64287 (189195) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $5.74 | $12.01 | +$6.27 | 58% 50847-36987 (87834) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 52% 89668-84106 (173774) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19871-19020 (38891) |
Invested
$133.48
Value
$160
PnL
+$26.52
Record
51%
7062-6703 (13765)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.35
Value
$126.81
PnL
+$29.46
Record
55%
17500-14140 (31640)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$49.36
Value
$60.21
PnL
+$10.85
Record
49%
77653-81002 (158655)
Invested
$37.44
Value
$50
PnL
+$12.56
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.68
Value
$13
PnL
-$0.68
Record
55%
44344-36830 (81174)
Invested
$25.33
Value
$39.45
PnL
+$14.12
Record
65%
22160-12167 (34327)
Invested
$22.05
Value
$22.16
PnL
+$0.11
Record
61%
94214-59259 (153473)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$1.41
Record
66%
124908-64287 (189195)
Invested
$5.74
Value
$12.01
PnL
+$6.27
Record
58%
50847-36987 (87834)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
89668-84106 (173774)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19871-19020 (38891)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $126.81
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $60.21
thesidehustle
Down — $50
MayorMamdani
Down — $13
aaa221
Down — $39.45
asidjasiodja
Down — $22.16
asdaefef
Down — $16.35
PBot-6
Down — $12.01
dvasdkasodk
Down — $5