Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$231.17
$13.67
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $159.5 | $135.17 | -$24.32 | 51% 7062-6703 (13765) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.8¢ | $109.25 | $135.17 | +$25.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.4¢ | $50.25 | — | -$50.25 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.5¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 59% 62058-43138 (105196) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $31.26 | $45.92 | +$14.66 | 65% 22160-12167 (34327) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $18.2 | $40 | +$21.8 | 34% 18605-35595 (54200) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 35.1¢ | $13.18 | — | -$13.18 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 48% 23131-25296 (48427) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.6¢ | $2.49 | — | -$2.49 | 55% 44344-36830 (81174) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $5.85 | $5.08 | -$0.77 | 55% 17500-14140 (31640) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.95 | $5 | -$1.95 | 61% 94214-59259 (153473) |
Invested
$159.5
Value
$135.17
PnL
-$24.32
Record
51%
7062-6703 (13765)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
59%
62058-43138 (105196)
Invested
$31.26
Value
$45.92
PnL
+$14.66
Record
65%
22160-12167 (34327)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$21.8
Record
34%
18605-35595 (54200)
Invested
$13.18
Value
—
PnL
-$13.18
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
48%
23131-25296 (48427)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.49
Value
—
PnL
-$2.49
Record
55%
44344-36830 (81174)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$0.77
Record
55%
17500-14140 (31640)
Invested
$6.95
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.95
Record
61%
94214-59259 (153473)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $45.92
Little-big
Down — $40
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $5.08
asidjasiodja
Down — $5