Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
8
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$120.17
-$54.35
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2Β’ | $64.84 | $79.4 | +$14.56 | 51% 7062-6703 (13765) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50.2Β’ | $39.89 | $79.4 | +$39.51 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 59.6Β’ | $24.95 | β | -$24.95 | |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.3Β’ | $3.84 | β | -$3.84 | 49% 77653-81002 (158655) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 4.1Β’ | $3.07 | β | -$3.07 | 46% 37974-44715 (82689) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 57.6Β’ | $37.3 | β | -$37.3 | 55% 17500-14140 (31640) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.2Β’ | $2.08 | β | -$2.08 | 55% 44344-36830 (81174) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $20.79 | $21 | +$0.21 | 61% 94214-59259 (153473) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 68Β’ | $13.58 | β | -$13.58 | 58% 60229-43960 (104189) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93Β’ | $10.8 | $11.61 | +$0.81 | 66% 124908-64287 (189195) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 44.8Β’ | $3.66 | $8.16 | +$4.5 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
Invested
$64.84
Value
$79.4
PnL
+$14.56
Record
51%
7062-6703 (13765)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.84
Value
β
PnL
-$3.84
Record
49%
77653-81002 (158655)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.07
Value
β
PnL
-$3.07
Record
46%
37974-44715 (82689)
Invested
$37.3
Value
β
PnL
-$37.3
Record
55%
17500-14140 (31640)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
β
PnL
-$2.08
Record
55%
44344-36830 (81174)
Invested
$20.79
Value
$21
PnL
+$0.21
Record
61%
94214-59259 (153473)
Invested
$13.58
Value
β
PnL
-$13.58
Record
58%
60229-43960 (104189)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$11.61
PnL
+$0.81
Record
66%
124908-64287 (189195)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$8.16
PnL
+$4.5
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded

OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown β $0

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown β $0

MayorMamdani
CTRDown β $0
asidjasiodja
Up β $21
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
Up β $11.61
thesidehustle
Up β $8.16