Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 33%
1 arb excluded
$770.75
-$47.9
Smart Money Signal
6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $250.63 | $287.53 | +$36.89 | 51% 7002-6680 (13682) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71¢ | $204.01 | $287.53 | +$83.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.4¢ | $46.62 | — | -$46.62 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.5¢ | $276.33 | $283.33 | +$7 | 93% 22818-1742 (24560) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 94.6¢ | $95.33 | $100.8 | +$5.47 | 74% 102231-36345 (138576) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $2.83 | — | -$2.83 | 62% 43641-26603 (70244) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $36.83 | $39.99 | +$3.17 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 41.7¢ | $24.05 | — | -$24.05 | 55% 17472-14100 (31572) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $28.08 | $40.93 | +$12.85 | 65% 22059-12128 (34187) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $4.33 | — | -$4.33 | 59% 62048-43126 (105174) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $18.09 | — | -$18.09 | 66% 111736-58065 (169801) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.6¢ | $6.05 | — | -$6.05 | 55% 44309-36802 (81111) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $9.8 | — | -$9.8 | 57% 70079-53264 (123343) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $11.99 | $12.1 | +$0.12 | 61% 94187-59243 (153430) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 65% 124499-66595 (191094) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $3.57 | — | -$3.57 | 49% 77653-81002 (158655) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 51% 19870-19016 (38886) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 63% 51408-30257 (81665) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $5.58 | $6.07 | +$0.49 | 66% 124869-64274 (189143) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 52% 89634-84083 (173717) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $0.25 | — | -$0.25 | 56% 57694-44567 (102261) |
Invested
$250.63
Value
$287.53
PnL
+$36.89
Record
51%
7002-6680 (13682)
Both legs:
Invested
$276.33
Value
$283.33
PnL
+$7
Record
93%
22818-1742 (24560)
BoneOhioInvested
$95.33
Value
$100.8
PnL
+$5.47
Record
74%
102231-36345 (138576)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
—
PnL
-$2.83
Record
62%
43641-26603 (70244)
Invested
$36.83
Value
$39.99
PnL
+$3.17
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
Invested
$24.05
Value
—
PnL
-$24.05
Record
55%
17472-14100 (31572)
Invested
$28.08
Value
$40.93
PnL
+$12.85
Record
65%
22059-12128 (34187)
Invested
$4.33
Value
—
PnL
-$4.33
Record
59%
62048-43126 (105174)
Invested
$18.09
Value
—
PnL
-$18.09
Record
66%
111736-58065 (169801)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.05
Value
—
PnL
-$6.05
Record
55%
44309-36802 (81111)
Invested
$9.8
Value
—
PnL
-$9.8
Record
57%
70079-53264 (123343)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$12.1
PnL
+$0.12
Record
61%
94187-59243 (153430)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
65%
124499-66595 (191094)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.57
Value
—
PnL
-$3.57
Record
49%
77653-81002 (158655)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
51%
19870-19016 (38886)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
63%
51408-30257 (81665)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$6.07
PnL
+$0.49
Record
66%
124869-64274 (189143)
Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
52%
89634-84083 (173717)
Invested
$0.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.25
Record
56%
57694-44567 (102261)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $283.33
BoneOhio
Down — $100.8
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
Down — $39.99
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $40.93
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0