Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (91%) · Down at 100¢ · $615 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Down
11
Down 91%
$615.34
$140.67
65.2¢ → 99.5¢
+53% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 73¢ | $166.28 | $224.47 | +$58.19 | 55% 44266-36741 (81007) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $141.69 | $220.33 | +$78.64 | 51% 6965-6645 (13610) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $39.65 | $35.3 | -$4.35 | 64% 57769-32502 (90271) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $41.65 | $30.25 | -$11.4 | 55% 17439-14069 (31508) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $23.57 | $27.92 | +$4.35 | 61% 94136-59204 (153340) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $29.87 | $21.87 | +$8.06 | 65% 21975-12079 (34054) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $11.52 | $13.32 | +$1.8 | 52% 89581-84030 (173611) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $11.47 | $13.26 | +$1.79 | 66% 124813-64240 (189053) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.2¢ | $8.56 | $11.31 | +$2.75 | 46% 37948-44658 (82606) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $9.54 | $10.41 | +$0.87 | 65% 124444-66560 (191004) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $6.9 | -$0.04 | 93% 22775-1740 (24515) |
MayorMamdaniInvested
$166.28
Value
$224.47
PnL
+$58.19
Record
55%
44266-36741 (81007)
Invested
$141.69
Value
$220.33
PnL
+$78.64
Record
51%
6965-6645 (13610)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$39.65
Value
$35.3
PnL
-$4.35
Record
64%
57769-32502 (90271)
Invested
$41.65
Value
$30.25
PnL
-$11.4
Record
55%
17439-14069 (31508)
Invested
$23.57
Value
$27.92
PnL
+$4.35
Record
61%
94136-59204 (153340)
Invested
$29.87
Value
$21.87
PnL
+$8.06
Record
65%
21975-12079 (34054)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$13.32
PnL
+$1.8
Record
52%
89581-84030 (173611)
Invested
$11.47
Value
$13.26
PnL
+$1.79
Record
66%
124813-64240 (189053)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$8.56
Value
$11.31
PnL
+$2.75
Record
46%
37948-44658 (82606)
Invested
$9.54
Value
$10.41
PnL
+$0.87
Record
65%
124444-66560 (191004)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$0.04
Record
93%
22775-1740 (24515)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
MayorMamdani
Down — $224.47
ply-pm2
Down — $220.33
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $35.3
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $30.25
asidjasiodja
Down — $27.92
aaa221
Down — $21.87
dvasdkasodk
Down — $13.32
asdaefef
Down — $13.26
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $11.31
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $10.41