Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 82%
1 arb excluded
$307.78
$90.35
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $159.24 | $103.67 | -$55.57 | 51% 6965-6645 (13610) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.4¢ | $99.65 | — | -$99.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $59.59 | $103.67 | +$44.08 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $19.3 | $54.41 | +$35.11 | 55% 17439-14069 (31508) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 46% 37948-44658 (82606) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $19.92 | $29.58 | +$9.66 | 65% 124444-66560 (191004) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $22.75 | $25 | +$2.25 | 58% 60194-43949 (104143) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $12.42 | $24.72 | +$12.3 | 61% 94136-59204 (153340) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $14.31 | $25.69 | +$11.38 | 58% 37465-26708 (64173) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $6.13 | $16.13 | +$10 | 74% 102203-36340 (138543) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 71.4¢ | $8.48 | $11.89 | +$3.41 | 66% 124813-64240 (189053) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $6.57 | $9.25 | +$2.68 | 52% 89581-84030 (173611) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 19.3¢ | $1.44 | $7.44 | +$6 | 55% 44266-36741 (81007) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19858-18996 (38854) |
Invested
$159.24
Value
$103.67
PnL
-$55.57
Record
51%
6965-6645 (13610)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.3
Value
$54.41
PnL
+$35.11
Record
55%
17439-14069 (31508)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
46%
37948-44658 (82606)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$29.58
PnL
+$9.66
Record
65%
124444-66560 (191004)
Invested
$22.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$2.25
Record
58%
60194-43949 (104143)
Invested
$12.42
Value
$24.72
PnL
+$12.3
Record
61%
94136-59204 (153340)
Invested
$14.31
Value
$25.69
PnL
+$11.38
Record
58%
37465-26708 (64173)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$6.13
Value
$16.13
PnL
+$10
Record
74%
102203-36340 (138543)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$11.89
PnL
+$3.41
Record
66%
124813-64240 (189053)
Invested
$6.57
Value
$9.25
PnL
+$2.68
Record
52%
89581-84030 (173611)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
$7.44
PnL
+$6
Record
55%
44266-36741 (81007)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19858-18996 (38854)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $54.41
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $29.58
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $25
asidjasiodja
Down — $24.72
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $25.69
BoneOhio
Down — $16.13
asdaefef
Down — $11.89
dvasdkasodk
Down — $9.25