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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 50%

Total Value

$255.92

Combined PnL

-$190.19

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares351

Combined PnL-$260.38

Up7 traders

Total Value$255.92

Total Shares256

Combined PnL+$70.2

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 52.7¢	$168.31	—	-$168.31	51% 6965-6645 (13610)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 30.9¢	$39.2	$126.99	+$87.79	58% 12531-9183 (21714)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 98¢	$70.75	$56	-$14.75	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$61.05	—	-$39.34	65% 21975-12079 (34054)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$30.44	—	-$30.44	55% 17439-14069 (31508)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 35.3¢	$10.34	—	-$10.34	56% 57668-44552 (102220)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$18.19	$11	-$7.19	61% 94136-59204 (153340)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.6¢	$18.63	$17.53	-$1.1	66% 124813-64240 (189053)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$14.65	$20	+$5.35	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$12.76	$9	-$3.76	52% 89581-84030 (173611)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 75¢	$11.55	$15.4	+$3.85	65% 124444-66560 (191004)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$2.6	—	-$2.6	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$4.41	—	-$4.41	58% 50830-36973 (87803)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.95	—	-$4.95	34% 18574-35577 (54151)

Invested

$168.31

Value

—

PnL

-$168.31

Record

51%

6965-6645 (13610)

Invested

$39.2

Value

$126.99

PnL

+$87.79

Record

58%

12531-9183 (21714)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$70.75

Value

$56

PnL

-$14.75

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

Invested

$61.05

Value

—

PnL

-$39.34

Record

65%

21975-12079 (34054)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$30.44

Value

—

PnL

-$30.44

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$10.34

Value

—

PnL

-$10.34

Record

56%

57668-44552 (102220)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$18.19

Value

$11

PnL

-$7.19

Record

61%

94136-59204 (153340)

Invested

$18.63

Value

$17.53

PnL

-$1.1

Record

66%

124813-64240 (189053)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$14.65

Value

$20

PnL

+$5.35

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$12.76

Value

$9

PnL

-$3.76

Record

52%

89581-84030 (173611)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$11.55

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$3.85

Record

65%

124444-66560 (191004)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

—

PnL

-$2.6

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

Invested

$4.41

Value

—

PnL

-$4.41

Record

58%

50830-36973 (87803)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

—

PnL

-$4.95

Record

34%

18574-35577 (54151)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1f91fa8b...3f3ec0

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793236200

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $0

wowitsamazing

Up — $126.99

MayorMamdani

Up — $56

aaa221

Down — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $11

asdaefef

Up — $17.53

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $20

dvasdkasodk

Up — $9

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