Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$160.7
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $329.67 | $333 | +$3.33 | 93% 22775-1740 (24515) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $239.23 | $290 | +$58.37 | 48% 23103-25256 (48359) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 24.7¢ | $88.38 | $85.37 | -$3.01 | 51% 6965-6645 (13610) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $36.44 | $85.37 | +$48.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.7¢ | $51.94 | — | -$51.94 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $78.95 | $104.44 | +$25.49 | 55% 17439-14069 (31508) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $62.95 | $79.5 | +$16.55 | 55% 44266-36741 (81007) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 24.1¢ | $30.15 | — | -$30.15 | 58% 37465-26708 (64173) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $35.2 | $50.29 | +$15.09 | 56% 57668-44552 (102220) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $20.13 | $28.47 | +$8.34 | 65% 21975-12079 (34054) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $26.28 | $48.95 | +$22.67 | 58% 60194-43949 (104143) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $26.7 | $40.84 | +$14.14 | 61% 94136-59204 (153340) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $10.4 | $20 | +$9.6 | 65% 124444-66560 (191004) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $13.38 | $30.76 | +$17.38 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $13.87 | $21.43 | +$7.56 | 52% 89581-84030 (173611) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $13.75 | $21.26 | +$7.51 | 66% 124813-64240 (189053) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.9¢ | $5.77 | — | -$5.77 | 46% 37948-44658 (82606) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | 64% 57769-32502 (90271) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19858-18996 (38854) |
Invested
$329.67
Value
$333
PnL
+$3.33
Record
93%
22775-1740 (24515)
Invested
$239.23
Value
$290
PnL
+$58.37
Record
48%
23103-25256 (48359)
Invested
$88.38
Value
$85.37
PnL
-$3.01
Record
51%
6965-6645 (13610)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.95
Value
$104.44
PnL
+$25.49
Record
55%
17439-14069 (31508)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$62.95
Value
$79.5
PnL
+$16.55
Record
55%
44266-36741 (81007)
Invested
$30.15
Value
—
PnL
-$30.15
Record
58%
37465-26708 (64173)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$50.29
PnL
+$15.09
Record
56%
57668-44552 (102220)
Invested
$20.13
Value
$28.47
PnL
+$8.34
Record
65%
21975-12079 (34054)
Invested
$26.28
Value
$48.95
PnL
+$22.67
Record
58%
60194-43949 (104143)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$40.84
PnL
+$14.14
Record
61%
94136-59204 (153340)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.6
Record
65%
124444-66560 (191004)
Invested
$13.38
Value
$30.76
PnL
+$17.38
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
$13.87
Value
$21.43
PnL
+$7.56
Record
52%
89581-84030 (173611)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$21.26
PnL
+$7.51
Record
66%
124813-64240 (189053)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.77
Value
—
PnL
-$5.77
Record
46%
37948-44658 (82606)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.4
Record
64%
57769-32502 (90271)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19858-18996 (38854)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $333
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $290
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $104.44
MayorMamdani
Down — $79.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50.29
aaa221
Down — $28.47
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $48.95
asidjasiodja
Down — $40.84