Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 63%
$187.5
-$33.39
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $97.42 | $105.45 | +$8.02 | 51% 6935-6621 (13556) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $26.2 | $30 | +$3.8 | 65% 124408-66548 (190956) |
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $15.45 | $25.75 | +$10.3 | 53% 3685-3204 (6889) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $12.57 | — | -$12.57 | 64% 39768-22729 (62497) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $11.04 | — | -$11.04 | 62% 43621-26580 (70201) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.5¢ | $8.27 | — | -$8.27 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $9.21 | $12.28 | +$3.07 | 58% 60182-43943 (104125) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $12.9 | — | -$12.9 | 64% 57632-32371 (90003) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $3.76 | $8.75 | +$4.99 | 58% 37445-26686 (64131) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $3.85 | $5.27 | +$1.42 | 66% 124759-64225 (188984) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.8¢ | $6.44 | — | -$6.44 | 55% 44239-36719 (80958) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.61 | — | -$1.61 | 59% 62020-43089 (105109) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $2.05 | — | -$2.05 | 46% 37937-44627 (82564) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.2¢ | $4.05 | — | -$4.05 | 61% 94094-59183 (153277) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $2.17 | — | -$2.17 | 52% 89542-84009 (173551) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.6¢ | $3.9 | — | -$3.9 | 55% 17411-14044 (31455) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19852-18984 (38836) |
Invested
$97.42
Value
$105.45
PnL
+$8.02
Record
51%
6935-6621 (13556)
Invested
$26.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.8
Record
65%
124408-66548 (190956)
Invested
$15.45
Value
$25.75
PnL
+$10.3
Record
53%
3685-3204 (6889)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$12.57
Value
—
PnL
-$12.57
Record
64%
39768-22729 (62497)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$11.04
Value
—
PnL
-$11.04
Record
62%
43621-26580 (70201)
Invested
$8.27
Value
—
PnL
-$8.27
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
Invested
$9.21
Value
$12.28
PnL
+$3.07
Record
58%
60182-43943 (104125)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
—
PnL
-$12.9
Record
64%
57632-32371 (90003)
Invested
$3.76
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$4.99
Record
58%
37445-26686 (64131)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$1.42
Record
66%
124759-64225 (188984)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.44
Value
—
PnL
-$6.44
Record
55%
44239-36719 (80958)
Invested
$1.61
Value
—
PnL
-$1.61
Record
59%
62020-43089 (105109)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.05
Value
—
PnL
-$2.05
Record
46%
37937-44627 (82564)
Invested
$4.05
Value
—
PnL
-$4.05
Record
61%
94094-59183 (153277)
Invested
$2.17
Value
—
PnL
-$2.17
Record
52%
89542-84009 (173551)
Invested
$3.9
Value
—
PnL
-$3.9
Record
55%
17411-14044 (31455)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19852-18984 (38836)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
Down — $105.45
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $30
YouSayUpISayDown
Down — $25.75
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $12.28
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $8.75
asdaefef
Down — $5.27