Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Up 62%
1 arb excluded
$369.48
-$135.07
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $154.63 | $222.15 | +$67.53 | 51% 6935-6621 (13556) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.6¢ | $96.03 | — | -$96.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.4¢ | $58.59 | $222.15 | +$163.56 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $99.92 | $100.93 | +$1.01 | 93% 22744-1740 (24484) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $25.75 | — | -$25.75 | 55% 17411-14044 (31455) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 68.5¢ | $50.91 | — | -$50.91 | 61% 94094-59183 (153277) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $36.12 | — | -$36.12 | 55% 44239-36719 (80958) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 68.5¢ | $22.94 | — | -$22.94 | 52% 89542-84009 (173551) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $8.15 | $20 | +$11.85 | 65% 124408-66548 (190956) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $5.05 | $8.06 | +$3.01 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $5.97 | — | -$5.97 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $2.42 | — | -$2.42 | 56% 57656-44547 (102203) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $2.9 | — | -$2.9 | 64% 57632-32371 (90003) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $17.4 | — | -$9.81 | 51% 19852-18984 (38836) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.61 | $9.41 | +$4.8 | 58% 37445-26686 (64131) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $7.86 | $8.93 | +$1.07 | 63% 51338-30220 (81558) |
Invested
$154.63
Value
$222.15
PnL
+$67.53
Record
51%
6935-6621 (13556)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.92
Value
$100.93
PnL
+$1.01
Record
93%
22744-1740 (24484)
Invested
$25.75
Value
—
PnL
-$25.75
Record
55%
17411-14044 (31455)
Invested
$50.91
Value
—
PnL
-$50.91
Record
61%
94094-59183 (153277)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$36.12
Value
—
PnL
-$36.12
Record
55%
44239-36719 (80958)
Invested
$22.94
Value
—
PnL
-$22.94
Record
52%
89542-84009 (173551)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.85
Record
65%
124408-66548 (190956)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$8.06
PnL
+$3.01
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
$5.97
Value
—
PnL
-$5.97
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
Invested
$2.42
Value
—
PnL
-$2.42
Record
56%
57656-44547 (102203)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
—
PnL
-$2.9
Record
64%
57632-32371 (90003)
Invested
$17.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.81
Record
51%
19852-18984 (38836)
Invested
$4.61
Value
$9.41
PnL
+$4.8
Record
58%
37445-26686 (64131)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$7.86
Value
$8.93
PnL
+$1.07
Record
63%
51338-30220 (81558)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $100.93
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $20
antsaslyku
Down — $8.06
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0