Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
12
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$204.67
-$19.19
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $2.63 | β | -$2.63 | 46% 37937-44627 (82564) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 83.1Β’ | $95.6 | $94.76 | -$0.84 | 51% 6935-6621 (13556) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 83.1Β’ | $78.72 | $94.76 | +$16.04 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 34.4Β’ | $16.88 | β | -$16.88 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.2Β’ | $52.03 | $53 | +$0.97 | 93% 22744-1740 (24484) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 86Β’ | $13.59 | $9.62 | -$3.97 | 55% 44239-36719 (80958) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 89.9Β’ | $23.22 | $21.06 | -$2.16 | 61% 94094-59183 (153277) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 86.3Β’ | $13.54 | $13.05 | -$0.49 | 52% 89542-84009 (173551) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 89.3Β’ | $11.99 | $11.18 | -$0.81 | 66% 124759-64225 (188984) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $6.9 | β | +$3 | 64% 57632-32371 (90003) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Downavg 99.5Β’ | $9.95 | β | -$9.95 | 51% 19852-18984 (38836) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 46Β’ | $3.41 | β | -$3.41 | 58% 37445-26686 (64131) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.06 | β | -$0.06 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 62% 43621-26580 (70201) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 82Β’ | $1.64 | $2 | +$0.36 | 65% 124408-66548 (190956) |
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
β
PnL
-$2.63
Record
46%
37937-44627 (82564)
Invested
$95.6
Value
$94.76
PnL
-$0.84
Record
51%
6935-6621 (13556)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.03
Value
$53
PnL
+$0.97
Record
93%
22744-1740 (24484)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.59
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$3.97
Record
55%
44239-36719 (80958)
Invested
$23.22
Value
$21.06
PnL
-$2.16
Record
61%
94094-59183 (153277)
Invested
$13.54
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$0.49
Record
52%
89542-84009 (173551)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$11.18
PnL
-$0.81
Record
66%
124759-64225 (188984)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
β
PnL
+$3
Record
64%
57632-32371 (90003)
Invested
$9.95
Value
β
PnL
-$9.95
Record
51%
19852-18984 (38836)
Invested
$3.41
Value
β
PnL
-$3.41
Record
58%
37445-26686 (64131)
Invested
$0.06
Value
β
PnL
-$0.06
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
62%
43621-26580 (70201)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.36
Record
65%
124408-66548 (190956)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $53

MayorMamdani
Up β $9.62
asidjasiodja
Up β $21.06
dvasdkasodk
Up β $13.05
asdaefef
Up β $11.18

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0
devonpoll
CTRDown β $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown β $0