Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
9
Down 33%
1 arb excluded
$495.64
-$59.85
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9Β’ | $360.94 | $365.04 | +$4.1 | 93% 22702-1736 (24438) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 57Β’ | $113.74 | $52.95 | -$60.79 | 51% 6912-6596 (13508) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 57Β’ | $90.5 | β | -$90.5 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 43.9Β’ | $23.24 | $52.95 | +$29.71 | |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.5Β’ | $62.06 | β | -$62.06 | 64% 57632-32369 (90001) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 43.6Β’ | $33.85 | $58.65 | +$34.07 | 64% 21886-12047 (33933) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68Β’ | $18.57 | $19 | +$0.43 | 66% 124717-64207 (188924) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.8Β’ | $12.22 | β | -$12.22 | 61% 94062-59155 (153217) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 79Β’ | $3.95 | β | -$3.95 | 65% 124383-66536 (190919) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 83Β’ | $7.85 | β | -$7.85 | 58% 60164-43933 (104097) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1Β’ | $2.01 | β | -$2.01 | 62% 43616-26566 (70182) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.2Β’ | $10.37 | β | -$10.37 | 55% 44215-36703 (80918) |
Invested
$360.94
Value
$365.04
PnL
+$4.1
Record
93%
22702-1736 (24438)
Invested
$113.74
Value
$52.95
PnL
-$60.79
Record
51%
6912-6596 (13508)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$62.06
Value
β
PnL
-$62.06
Record
64%
57632-32369 (90001)
Invested
$33.85
Value
$58.65
PnL
+$34.07
Record
64%
21886-12047 (33933)
Invested
$18.57
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.43
Record
66%
124717-64207 (188924)
Invested
$12.22
Value
β
PnL
-$12.22
Record
61%
94062-59155 (153217)
Invested
$3.95
Value
β
PnL
-$3.95
Record
65%
124383-66536 (190919)
Invested
$7.85
Value
β
PnL
-$7.85
Record
58%
60164-43933 (104097)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
β
PnL
-$2.01
Record
62%
43616-26566 (70182)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$10.37
Value
β
PnL
-$10.37
Record
55%
44215-36703 (80918)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down β $365.04
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded

Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
Down β $58.65
asdaefef
Down β $19
asidjasiodja
CTRUp β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp β $0

G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp β $0

MayorMamdani
CTRUp β $0