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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$449.89

Combined PnL

-$27.71

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders
Total Value$122.3
Total Shares122
Combined PnL+$29.17
Down7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares139
Combined PnL-$56.88
Up — 46%Down — 54%
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$329.17

Value

$327.59

PnL

-$1.59

Record

51%

6912-6596 (13508)

Both legs:

Down$149.3249.7¢-$149.32
Up$179.8554.9¢+$147.74
Polkadot-Frog<$100
Up

Invested

$28.35

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$1.65

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Up

Invested

$28

Value

$40

PnL

+$12

Record

56%

57642-44528 (102170)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$9.94

Value

—

PnL

-$9.94

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$16.05

Value

—

PnL

-$16.05

Record

58%

60164-43933 (104097)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$11.78

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$5.13

Record

64%

21886-12047 (33933)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$8.38

Value

—

PnL

-$8.38

Record

61%

94062-59155 (153217)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$9.31

Value

—

PnL

-$9.31

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$6.8

Value

—

PnL

-$6.8

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.54

PnL

-$0.01

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

pspspsps5<$100
Up

Invested

$5.1

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$5.3

Record

46%

37929-44598 (82527)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$10.36

Value

$15.46

PnL

+$5.1

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.18

Value

—

PnL

-$3.18

Record

63%

51325-30204 (81529)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.22

Value

—

PnL

-$3.22

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x0a4ba0d6...6c5d9f
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793227800

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.59

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $29.99

+$1.65
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $40

+$12
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Down — $0

-$9.94
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Down — $0

-$16.05
AA

aaa221

Up — $16.91

+$5.13
AS

asidjasiodja

CTR

Down — $0

-$8.38
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$9.31
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Down — $0

-$6.8
AS

asdaefef

Up — $9.54

-$0.01
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