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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 70%

Total Value

$58.73

Combined PnL

-$266.57

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 10 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares401
Combined PnL-$310.92
Down3 traders
Total Value$58.73
Total Shares59
Combined PnL+$44.35
Up — 70%Down — 30%
PL
ply-pm2CTR
Up

Invested

$172.84

Value

—

PnL

-$172.84

Record

51%

6912-6596 (13508)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$31.11

Value

—

PnL

-$31.11

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$37.2

Value

—

PnL

-$37.2

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$16.77

Value

—

PnL

-$16.77

Record

61%

94062-59155 (153217)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$10.5

Value

—

PnL

-$10.5

Record

56%

57642-44528 (102170)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$12.54

Value

$50.18

PnL

+$37.64

Record

58%

60164-43933 (104097)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$32.45

Value

—

PnL

-$32.45

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$10.05

Value

—

PnL

-$10.05

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$1.35

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$4.79

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$0.48

Value

$2.41

PnL

+$1.93

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x1867b796...d844f2
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793227500

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Up — $0

-$172.84
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$31.11

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

-$37.2
AS

asidjasiodja

CTR

Up — $0

-$16.77
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Up — $0

-$10.5
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $50.18

+$37.64

MayorMamdani

CTR

Up — $0

-$32.45
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Up — $0

-$10.05
DV

dvasdkasodk

Down — $6.14

+$4.79
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $2.41

+$1.93
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