Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$249.73
-$61.12
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $197.38 | $161.49 | -$35.89 | 51% 6912-6596 (13508) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.6¢ | $76.85 | $161.49 | +$84.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.7¢ | $120.53 | — | -$120.53 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 46% 37929-44598 (82527) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $29.6 | $30 | +$0.4 | 65% 124383-66536 (190919) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.3¢ | $13.18 | — | -$13.18 | 55% 44215-36703 (80918) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $26.93 | — | -$26.93 | 64% 57632-32369 (90001) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $20 | +$0.2 | 93% 22702-1736 (24438) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $17.93 | — | -$17.93 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $17.1 | $18 | +$0.9 | 58% 60164-43933 (104097) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $11.9 | $10.24 | -$1.66 | 66% 124717-64207 (188924) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $6.6 | $10 | +$3.4 | 51% 19837-18971 (38808) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 61% 94062-59155 (153217) |
Invested
$197.38
Value
$161.49
PnL
-$35.89
Record
51%
6912-6596 (13508)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
46%
37929-44598 (82527)
Invested
$29.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.4
Record
65%
124383-66536 (190919)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$13.18
Value
—
PnL
-$13.18
Record
55%
44215-36703 (80918)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$26.93
Value
—
PnL
-$26.93
Record
64%
57632-32369 (90001)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.2
Record
93%
22702-1736 (24438)
Invested
$17.93
Value
—
PnL
-$17.93
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.9
Record
58%
60164-43933 (104097)
Invested
$11.9
Value
$10.24
PnL
-$1.66
Record
66%
124717-64207 (188924)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.4
Record
51%
19837-18971 (38808)
Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
61%
94062-59155 (153217)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pspspsps5
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $30
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $20
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $18
asdaefef
Up — $10.24
devonpoll
Up — $10