Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Down 57%
2 arb excluded
$316.18
-$46.9
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $146.07 | $145.35 | -$0.72 | 51% 6912-6596 (13508) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.5¢ | $57.39 | $145.35 | +$87.96 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.5¢ | $88.68 | — | -$88.68 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 38.9¢ | $30.82 | $61.12 | +$30.3 | 58% 37423-26662 (64085) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 38.8¢ | $40.03 | $34.17 | -$5.86 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.8¢ | $23.15 | — | -$23.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $16.88 | $34.17 | +$17.29 | |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $42.89 | — | -$42.89 | 74% 102188-36332 (138520) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $14.75 | — | -$14.75 | 55% 17378-14015 (31393) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $16.99 | $27.79 | +$10.8 | 63% 51325-30204 (81529) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98.8¢ | $19.8 | $20.05 | +$0.25 | 65% 124383-66536 (190919) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $11.6 | $12.57 | +$0.97 | 55% 44215-36703 (80918) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $9.7 | $10 | +$0.3 | 64% 57632-32369 (90001) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $8.09 | — | -$8.09 | 58% 60164-43933 (104097) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $8.7 | — | -$8.7 | 56% 57642-44528 (102170) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $5.86 | — | -$5.86 | 64% 39757-22720 (62477) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $5.45 | — | -$5.45 | 52% 89516-83965 (173481) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $4.51 | — | -$4.51 | 58% 50817-36958 (87775) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 61% 94062-59155 (153217) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $1.95 | $5.13 | +$3.18 | 66% 124717-64207 (188924) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19837-18971 (38808) |
Invested
$146.07
Value
$145.35
PnL
-$0.72
Record
51%
6912-6596 (13508)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.82
Value
$61.12
PnL
+$30.3
Record
58%
37423-26662 (64085)
Invested
$40.03
Value
$34.17
PnL
-$5.86
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Both legs:
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$42.89
Value
—
PnL
-$42.89
Record
74%
102188-36332 (138520)
Invested
$14.75
Value
—
PnL
-$14.75
Record
55%
17378-14015 (31393)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$16.99
Value
$27.79
PnL
+$10.8
Record
63%
51325-30204 (81529)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20.05
PnL
+$0.25
Record
65%
124383-66536 (190919)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$11.6
Value
$12.57
PnL
+$0.97
Record
55%
44215-36703 (80918)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.3
Record
64%
57632-32369 (90001)
Invested
$8.09
Value
—
PnL
-$8.09
Record
58%
60164-43933 (104097)
Invested
$8.7
Value
—
PnL
-$8.7
Record
56%
57642-44528 (102170)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$5.86
Value
—
PnL
-$5.86
Record
64%
39757-22720 (62477)
Invested
$5.45
Value
—
PnL
-$5.45
Record
52%
89516-83965 (173481)
Invested
$4.51
Value
—
PnL
-$4.51
Record
58%
50817-36958 (87775)
Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
61%
94062-59155 (153217)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$3.18
Record
66%
124717-64207 (188924)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19837-18971 (38808)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $61.12
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $27.79
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $20.05
MayorMamdani
Up — $12.57
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $10
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0