Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
13
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$330.28
$34.67
Smart Money Signal
6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 63.1Β’ | $188.22 | $172.05 | -$16.16 | 51% 6891-6570 (13461) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 63.1Β’ | $108.61 | $172.05 | +$63.45 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 54.1Β’ | $79.61 | β | -$79.61 | |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.3Β’ | $9.07 | β | -$9.07 | 55% 44184-36684 (80868) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 54.3Β’ | $29 | $31.24 | +$2.24 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 77.3Β’ | $36.29 | $46.97 | +$10.68 | 65% 21845-12018 (33863) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 42.5Β’ | $12.55 | $25.6 | +$13.05 | 61% 94030-59124 (153154) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 47Β’ | $14.62 | $19.58 | +$4.96 | 52% 89477-83931 (173408) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 4Β’ | $4.1 | β | +$10.3 | 65% 124345-66513 (190858) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 75.7Β’ | $11.79 | $14.84 | +$3.05 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.4Β’ | $1.53 | β | -$1.53 | 63% 51314-30185 (81499) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 61.5Β’ | $7.96 | β | -$7.96 | 64% 57631-32367 (89998) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 33Β’ | $7.02 | $20 | +$12.98 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 52Β’ | $2.6 | β | -$2.6 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 29Β’ | $1.45 | β | -$1.45 | 58% 37406-26644 (64050) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 12Β’ | β | β | +$0 | 51% 19816-18956 (38772) |
Invested
$188.22
Value
$172.05
PnL
-$16.16
Record
51%
6891-6570 (13461)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$9.07
Value
β
PnL
-$9.07
Record
55%
44184-36684 (80868)
Invested
$29
Value
$31.24
PnL
+$2.24
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
Invested
$36.29
Value
$46.97
PnL
+$10.68
Record
65%
21845-12018 (33863)
Invested
$12.55
Value
$25.6
PnL
+$13.05
Record
61%
94030-59124 (153154)
Invested
$14.62
Value
$19.58
PnL
+$4.96
Record
52%
89477-83931 (173408)
Invested
$4.1
Value
β
PnL
+$10.3
Record
65%
124345-66513 (190858)
Invested
$11.79
Value
$14.84
PnL
+$3.05
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1.53
Value
β
PnL
-$1.53
Record
63%
51314-30185 (81499)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$7.96
Value
β
PnL
-$7.96
Record
64%
57631-32367 (89998)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.98
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$2.6
Value
β
PnL
-$2.6
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
Invested
$1.45
Value
β
PnL
-$1.45
Record
58%
37406-26644 (64050)
Invested
β
Value
β
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19816-18956 (38772)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded

MayorMamdani
CTRDown β $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Up β $31.24
aaa221
Up β $46.97
asidjasiodja
Up β $25.6
dvasdkasodk
Up β $19.58
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
Up β $14.84

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown β $0

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0