Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$222.57
-$32.86
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $155.82 | $148.54 | -$7.28 | 51% 6891-6570 (13461) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86.9¢ | $129.12 | $148.54 | +$19.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.5¢ | $26.7 | — | -$26.7 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $35.53 | $33.03 | -$2.5 | 64% 57631-32367 (89998) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $12.03 | — | -$12.03 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.8¢ | $16.6 | — | -$16.6 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $14.8 | $15 | +$0.2 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $9.8 | $14 | +$4.2 | 62% 43601-26547 (70148) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $5.04 | $12 | +$6.96 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 55% 44184-36684 (80868) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 61% 94030-59124 (153154) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $8.33 | — | -$8.33 | 46% 37909-44573 (82482) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $0.96 | — | -$0.96 | 65% 21845-12018 (33863) |
Invested
$155.82
Value
$148.54
PnL
-$7.28
Record
51%
6891-6570 (13461)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$35.53
Value
$33.03
PnL
-$2.5
Record
64%
57631-32367 (89998)
Invested
$12.03
Value
—
PnL
-$12.03
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$16.6
Value
—
PnL
-$16.6
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.2
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$14
PnL
+$4.2
Record
62%
43601-26547 (70148)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.96
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
55%
44184-36684 (80868)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
61%
94030-59124 (153154)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$8.33
Value
—
PnL
-$8.33
Record
46%
37909-44573 (82482)
Invested
$0.96
Value
—
PnL
-$0.96
Record
65%
21845-12018 (33863)
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