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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 70%

Total Value

$178.6

Combined PnL

-$73.03

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 10 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders
Total Value$178.6
Total Shares179
Combined PnL+$57.71
Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares226
Combined PnL-$130.74
Down — 30%Up — 70%
KA
Kathod-Shi-14
Down

Invested

$57.6

Value

$122.69

PnL

+$65.09

Record

55%

17349-13981 (31330)

PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$56.72

Value

—

PnL

-$56.72

Record

51%

6891-6570 (13461)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$61.41

Value

$44.13

PnL

-$17.28

Record

65%

124345-66513 (190858)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$37.05

Value

—

PnL

-$37.05

Record

56%

57617-44504 (102121)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$14.8

Value

—

PnL

-$14.8

Record

65%

21845-12018 (33863)

TH
thesidehustleCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$10.9

Value

—

PnL

-$10.9

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$1.89

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$9.9

Record

55%

44184-36684 (80868)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.9

Value

—

PnL

-$6.9

Record

51%

19816-18956 (38772)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.94

Value

—

PnL

-$3.94

Record

61%

94030-59124 (153154)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.43

Value

—

PnL

-$0.43

Record

62%

43601-26547 (70148)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xdb0ebb99...3c9ad0
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793218800

Traders in this Market

KA

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $122.69

+$65.09
PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Up — $0

-$56.72
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $44.13

-$17.28
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Up — $0

-$37.05
AA

aaa221

CTR

Up — $0

-$14.8
TH

thesidehustle

CTR

Up — $0

-$10.9

MayorMamdani

Down — $11.79

+$9.9
DE

devonpoll

CTR

Up — $0

-$6.9
AS

asidjasiodja

CTR

Up — $0

-$3.94

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.43
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