Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$310.07
$9.64
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 77.9¢ | $107.14 | $93.46 | -$13.68 | 51% 6853-6542 (13395) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.9¢ | $72.76 | $93.46 | +$20.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.7¢ | $34.38 | — | -$34.38 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $149.94 | $153 | +$3.06 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.3¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 37893-44550 (82443) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.28 | — | -$1.28 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $20 | +$9.4 | 58% 60135-43896 (104031) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $9.2 | $11.07 | +$1.87 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $20.37 | $14.53 | +$6.97 | 65% 21769-11955 (33724) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $11.71 | $9 | -$2.71 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $8.02 | $9.01 | +$0.99 | 56% 57606-44494 (102100) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $3.18 | — | -$3.18 | 61% 93995-59086 (153081) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $2.3 | — | -$2.3 | 51% 19801-18940 (38741) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.09 | — | -$0.09 | 59% 61993-43042 (105035) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $1.23 | — | -$1.23 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
Invested
$107.14
Value
$93.46
PnL
-$13.68
Record
51%
6853-6542 (13395)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.94
Value
$153
PnL
+$3.06
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
37893-44550 (82443)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.28
Value
—
PnL
-$1.28
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$10.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.4
Record
58%
60135-43896 (104031)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$11.07
PnL
+$1.87
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Invested
$20.37
Value
$14.53
PnL
+$6.97
Record
65%
21769-11955 (33724)
Invested
$11.71
Value
$9
PnL
-$2.71
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
Invested
$8.02
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$0.99
Record
56%
57606-44494 (102100)
Invested
$3.18
Value
—
PnL
-$3.18
Record
61%
93995-59086 (153081)
Invested
$2.3
Value
—
PnL
-$2.3
Record
51%
19801-18940 (38741)
Invested
$0.09
Value
—
PnL
-$0.09
Record
59%
61993-43042 (105035)
Invested
$1.23
Value
—
PnL
-$1.23
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $153
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $20
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $11.07
aaa221
Down — $14.53
asdaefef
Down — $9
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $9.01
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0