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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 53%

Total Value

$186.62

Combined PnL

-$9.16

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$186.62

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$58.47

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares868

Combined PnL-$67.63

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 51.2¢	$46.1	$60.49	+$14.39	51% 6853-6542 (13395)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$25.53	$39.18	+$13.65	66% 98656-51035 (149691)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.5¢	$14.96	—	-$14.96	59% 61993-43042 (105035)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$23.4	—	-$23.4	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$15.6	$18.05	+$2.45	66% 124638-64161 (188799)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 41¢	$14.05	$34.28	+$20.23	58% 60135-43896 (104031)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$11	$13.82	+$2.81	61% 93995-59086 (153081)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$15.05	—	-$15.05	62% 43590-26534 (70124)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 68¢	$13.45	$15.07	+$1.62	55% 17309-13927 (31236)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4.9¢	$5.8	—	-$5.8	46% 37893-44550 (82443)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 7.2¢	$4.79	—	-$4.79	55% 44146-36636 (80782)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 42¢	$2.41	$5.74	+$3.33	64% 39732-22693 (62425)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$1.59	—	-$1.59	65% 21769-11955 (33724)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	52% 89438-83891 (173329)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$1	—	-$1	51% 19801-18940 (38741)

Invested

$46.1

Value

$60.49

PnL

+$14.39

Record

51%

6853-6542 (13395)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$25.53

Value

$39.18

PnL

+$13.65

Record

66%

98656-51035 (149691)

Invested

$14.96

Value

—

PnL

-$14.96

Record

59%

61993-43042 (105035)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

—

PnL

-$23.4

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

Invested

$15.6

Value

$18.05

PnL

+$2.45

Record

66%

124638-64161 (188799)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$14.05

Value

$34.28

PnL

+$20.23

Record

58%

60135-43896 (104031)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$13.82

PnL

+$2.81

Record

61%

93995-59086 (153081)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$15.05

Value

—

PnL

-$15.05

Record

62%

43590-26534 (70124)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$13.45

Value

$15.07

PnL

+$1.62

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

—

PnL

-$5.8

Record

46%

37893-44550 (82443)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

—

PnL

-$4.79

Record

55%

44146-36636 (80782)

Invested

$2.41

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$3.33

Record

64%

39732-22693 (62425)

Invested

$1.59

Value

—

PnL

-$1.59

Record

65%

21769-11955 (33724)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

52%

89438-83891 (173329)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

51%

19801-18940 (38741)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2acc04f8...60ada3

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793214900

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $60.49

Bonereaper

Down — $39.18

0x50f7

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $18.05

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $34.28

asidjasiodja

Down — $13.82

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $15.07

pspspsps5

Up — $0

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