Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$553.71
-$23.98
Smart Money Signal
11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 30.8¢ | $175.04 | $204.08 | +$29.04 | 51% 6829-6526 (13355) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.8¢ | $92.57 | — | -$92.57 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.4¢ | $82.47 | $204.08 | +$121.61 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $74.98 | $85.94 | +$10.96 | 49% 77593-80930 (158523) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $57.98 | $67.96 | +$9.98 | 46% 37887-44532 (82419) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $43.8 | $60 | +$16.2 | 58% 60123-43891 (104014) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $33.4 | $50.89 | +$17.49 | 55% 17284-13893 (31177) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $15.68 | $16 | +$0.32 | 93% 22615-1734 (24349) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 95.9¢ | $17.2 | $15 | -$2.2 | 66% 124478-64082 (188560) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $13.83 | $15 | +$1.17 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $10 | $20.83 | +$10.83 | 65% 124286-66473 (190759) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.36 | $11 | -$1.36 | 52% 89418-83862 (173280) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $9.5 | $7 | -$2.5 | 61% 93968-59068 (153036) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.8¢ | $86.5 | — | -$86.5 | 57% 69881-53093 (122974) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.5¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 56% 57594-44483 (102077) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19791-18936 (38727) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $12 | — | +$1.98 | 65% 21722-11935 (33657) |
Invested
$175.04
Value
$204.08
PnL
+$29.04
Record
51%
6829-6526 (13355)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$74.98
Value
$85.94
PnL
+$10.96
Record
49%
77593-80930 (158523)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$57.98
Value
$67.96
PnL
+$9.98
Record
46%
37887-44532 (82419)
Invested
$43.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$16.2
Record
58%
60123-43891 (104014)
Invested
$33.4
Value
$50.89
PnL
+$17.49
Record
55%
17284-13893 (31177)
Invested
$15.68
Value
$16
PnL
+$0.32
Record
93%
22615-1734 (24349)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$15
PnL
-$2.2
Record
66%
124478-64082 (188560)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.83
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.17
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
Invested
$10
Value
$20.83
PnL
+$10.83
Record
65%
124286-66473 (190759)
Invested
$12.36
Value
$11
PnL
-$1.36
Record
52%
89418-83862 (173280)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$7
PnL
-$2.5
Record
61%
93968-59068 (153036)
Invested
$86.5
Value
—
PnL
-$86.5
Record
57%
69881-53093 (122974)
Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
56%
57594-44483 (102077)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19791-18936 (38727)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
+$1.98
Record
65%
21722-11935 (33657)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $85.94
pspspsps5
Down — $67.96
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $60
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $50.89
hoodquant
Down — $16
asdaefef
Down — $15
MayorMamdani
Down — $15
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $20.83
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11