Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 86%
2 arb excluded
$430.21
$32.45
Smart Money Signal
12 of 15 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $74.38 | $60.81 | -$13.57 | 51% 6829-6526 (13355) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.5¢ | $45.27 | — | -$45.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.9¢ | $29.11 | $60.81 | +$31.7 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 30.7¢ | $91.9 | $55.86 | -$36.04 | 57% 69881-53093 (122974) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.1¢ | $41.4 | $55.86 | +$14.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.7¢ | $50.49 | — | -$50.49 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $64.35 | $85.17 | +$20.82 | 55% 17284-13893 (31177) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $45.92 | $46.38 | +$0.46 | 74% 102141-36314 (138455) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $30.99 | $28.93 | -$2.06 | 66% 124478-64082 (188560) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 63.2¢ | $19.57 | $30.72 | +$11.15 | 61% 93968-59068 (153036) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 38.5¢ | $21.96 | $29.51 | +$7.55 | 58% 60123-43891 (104014) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $27.89 | $18.06 | -$9.82 | 49% 77593-80930 (158523) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $14.82 | $20.51 | +$7.16 | 65% 124286-66473 (190759) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $13.85 | $17.01 | +$3.16 | 52% 89418-83862 (173280) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $15.29 | — | -$15.29 | 56% 57594-44483 (102077) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $11.12 | $18.03 | +$6.91 | 64% 39724-22691 (62415) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $4.06 | $4 | -$0.06 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 67.5¢ | $6.9 | $10.22 | +$3.32 | 51% 19791-18936 (38727) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 26.5¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 58% 37375-26622 (63997) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $5 | +$2.55 | 12% 18033-132824 (150857) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $3.32 | — | +$0.3 | 65% 21722-11935 (33657) |
Invested
$74.38
Value
$60.81
PnL
-$13.57
Record
51%
6829-6526 (13355)
Both legs:
Invested
$91.9
Value
$55.86
PnL
-$36.04
Record
57%
69881-53093 (122974)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.35
Value
$85.17
PnL
+$20.82
Record
55%
17284-13893 (31177)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$45.92
Value
$46.38
PnL
+$0.46
Record
74%
102141-36314 (138455)
Invested
$30.99
Value
$28.93
PnL
-$2.06
Record
66%
124478-64082 (188560)
Invested
$19.57
Value
$30.72
PnL
+$11.15
Record
61%
93968-59068 (153036)
Invested
$21.96
Value
$29.51
PnL
+$7.55
Record
58%
60123-43891 (104014)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$27.89
Value
$18.06
PnL
-$9.82
Record
49%
77593-80930 (158523)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$20.51
PnL
+$7.16
Record
65%
124286-66473 (190759)
Invested
$13.85
Value
$17.01
PnL
+$3.16
Record
52%
89418-83862 (173280)
Invested
$15.29
Value
—
PnL
-$15.29
Record
56%
57594-44483 (102077)
ohioism<$100Invested
$11.12
Value
$18.03
PnL
+$6.91
Record
64%
39724-22691 (62415)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.06
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.06
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$10.22
PnL
+$3.32
Record
51%
19791-18936 (38727)
Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
58%
37375-26622 (63997)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.55
Record
12%
18033-132824 (150857)
Invested
$3.32
Value
—
PnL
+$0.3
Record
65%
21722-11935 (33657)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $85.17
BoneOhio
Up — $46.38
asdaefef
Up — $28.93
asidjasiodja
Up — $30.72
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $29.51
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $18.06
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $20.51
dvasdkasodk
Up — $17.01